A lot of the discussion surrounding Kyle Lohse, some of which have been brought up here in past posts, has been his future with the Cardinals beyond this year. Discussing Lohse's future with the team may seem a bit premature given the current standing of the club and the imminent hot stove season, but I think his future with this team is very much an integral part to how we should approach the oncoming trade deadline. I've advocated signing Kyle Lohse, and I've advocated trading Lohse while his value is at an all-time high. But what if we hold on to him until the end of the season? Does his only value come as a trade or re-signing? Maybe not.

When the season ends, the Elias Sports Bureau ranks all players in groups according to their statistics. Free agents are grouped as Type A, Type B, or neither, according to how their stats fared the past two seasons. Specifically, Elias ranks starting pitchers using Games (GS + 0.5 times total relief appearances), IP, W, W-L%, ERA and K's over the past two years. If a team signs a Type A free agent and has a draft pick in the range of picks 16-30, the team that lost that player gets the signing team's 1st round draft pick and an additional supplemental draft pick in-between the first and second rounds. If the signing team picks within the first 15 draft choices, the signing team gives up their second round pick and the other team gets the additional supplemental pick as well. Either way, Type A free agents net their former team two draft picks.

In order for the former team to get the draft picks, however, it must have offered the player arbitration first and had their offer declined. This is what happened with David Eckstein over the past year - the Cardinals declined to offer him arbitration, thus losing the chance to get draft picks in return when he signed with Toronto. The main reason they would do this is they feared he would accept the arbitration, which is debatable.

A hypothetical Adam Dunn situation is explained very well at MLB Trade Rumors.

On to Kyle Lohse. The Cardinals are in a dilemma of deciding whether to extend Lohse beyond this year. On one hand, they could be getting the Lohse that has dominated so far this year and solidify the rotation for several years. On the other hand, they could get a Lohse that is performing way above his head, allocate another $10-12 million a year to the rotation that already has four pitchers lined up for next year, and end up being on the hook for millions of dollars tied to solely the rotation.

They have two other options. They could trade him while his value is extremely high, capitalizing on a thin pitching market and desperate suitors. In doing so, however, they sacrifice the durability and surety he adds to a injury-riddled rotation this year. Or they could let him walk.

Perhaps the last move might be the wisest. It could be that the best way to maximize our investment in Lohse is to let him walk after using his services for the rest of this season. You get solid production now and talent for the future. It could be better than a trade and keep you from devoting another double-digit contract to the rotation.

Why speculate to what type of free agent Kyle Lohse will be at the end of the season when there's tons of previous Type A starting pitchers to compare him to? Here are the two-year totals for Andy Pettite and Tom Glavine, two comparable, 2008 Type A free agents.

	G	IP	ERA	Wins	W-L%	K
Andy Pettite	70.5	429.2	4.13	29	56.8%	319
Tom Glavine	66	398.1	4.14	28	65.1%	220

Those are roughly the same numbers Elias looked at when evaluating what category both pitchers fell in to. Both were deemed Type A-worthy.

Lohse's turn. He is undoubtedly having a career year. Still, he's always been a dependable pitcher and has turned in the occasional above-average year. We know what his numbers now are, but we can only predict what the rest of the season will look like for him. ESPN projects players without regard to career performance or any other factors, while ZiPS has an in-season projector that factors in ZiPS numbers when calculating the season projection. The former projects a 19-3 record for Lohse, 209 IP, and 109 K. As awesome as 19 wins would be, that's probably not going to happen, so I'll use the ZiPS projection, which figures he'll go 4-4 with a 4.18 ERA in 71 innings pitched for the rest of the season. That's a little more believable and leaves room for Kyle to surpass those numbers if he stays hot. What do Kyle's two-year totals look like when projecting to the end of this season?

	G	IP	ERA	Wins	W-L%	K
Kyle Lohse	69.5	398	4.12	25	58.1%	233

And, when compared to our two Type A free agents, he stacks up quite well:

	G	IP	ERA	Wins	W-L%	K
Andy Pettite	70.5	429.2	4.13	29	56.8%	319
Tom Glavine	66	398.1	4.14	28	65.1%	220
Kyle Lohse	69.5	398	4.12	25	58.1%	233

Rest assured, Kyle Lohse will be a Type A free agent at the end of the year. He compares well in every category, and that's assuming that there will be a drop-off in his numbers from now until the end of the season. Still don't believe me? How about comparing him to some other Type A players who were not free agents last off-season - Doug Davis and Chuck James. Remember, Elias ranks all players regardless of whether they're free agents or not.

	G	IP	ERA	Wins	W-L%	K
Doug Davis	67	396	4.59	24	51.0%	303
Chuck James	51.5	280.1	4.05	22	61.1%	207
Kyle Lohse	69.5	398	4.12	25	58.1%	233

The question is now whether Lohse will accept arbitration, but, with Scott Boras as his agent, I think it's safe to assume he won't if he continues his stellar season. There are plenty of teams that could draft in the bottom 15 picks next year and are bound to be interested in Kyle: the Rays, White Sox, Brewers, Phillies, Mets, and Yankees all come to mind.

In conclusion, the Cardinals should let Lohse go by trade or free agency, as we'll have Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Pineiro, and one of Mitch Boggs, Jaime Garcia, Mike Parisi, Clayton Mortensen, and Jess Todd already penciled in for next year. The money for Lohse would be better spent on a free agent like Orlando Hudson or Rafael Furcal - someone could provide spark at the top of the order and stability to the middle infield.

Thoughts? Comments? Let's hear 'em. And, if you haven't done so already, make sure you subscribe to the Rockin' the Red RSS feed at the top of the page!