Considering Roy Oswalt

Monday, July 26, 2010 |

Busy, busy past week. The Cardinals go on a rollercoaster ride with streaks, finally ending on top of a 4-3 extra-inning game in Chicago. Dan Haren gets traded to the Angels, with many pundits wondering if he could get re-traded to someone else. And, of all the trade targets on the market, the Cardinals have been most linked to division rival and long-time Cardinal enemy, Roy Oswalt.

The latest, then, on the prospects of getting Oswalt this July, per Joe Strauss:

Mozeliak described any move as "certainly not imminent at this time," then hinted that the market may be too steep to find any significant upgrade for the rotation. He relayed the sentiment after a brief dugout meeting with manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan.

"At this point, it's entirely possible that there may not be a deal out there" for pitching, Mozeliak said. "We're continuing to explore avenues, but as we speak I can't say I'm encouraged."
Despite all the indications that Roy would restructure his deal if it meant getting to be in St. Louis, the price tag is still mighty hefty - $16 M in 2011 and a $16 M option in 2012 with a $2 M buyout. The Astros are said to be wanting a player already on the roster, plus at least two more big-name prospects. Jon Jay would probably be a part of that package, with Lance Lynn almost assuredly part of the deal to keep Shelby Miller from being involved, which would be a worst-case scenario. Fernando Salas is another name that could be desirable in a deal.

There are a lot of outside influences that could affect this situation. What is Albert Pujols' take on the deal... would he be willing to backload his future contract to make room for a big-name acquisition? How bad does Houston want to trade Oswalt... bad enough to make a fair deal with a division rival? Will Bill DeWitt open the pocketbooks in 2011 and, potentially, 2012?

The Cardinals already have $67.3 M obligated in 2011, and that's not including Albert's extra $11 M option (see Cot's Contracts spreadsheet for a breakdown). I think the Cardinals can make it work, but it would take a lot of creativity and a lot of concessions by Roy Oswalt. Indians' starters Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook seem like easier deals to work out, but that's assuming the Cards decide to go pitching. I'm not quite sold on that yet.


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First impressions: Back from the break

Monday, July 19, 2010 |

Hopefully, many of you got to see the Cards game yesterday. If you didn't, I'm sure you know what happened. Padilla shuts us down, Cards score three in 8th, and big hits by Allen Craig and Matt Holliday seal the game in the 9th. Absolutely great game to watch in a situation that looked grim from the beginning. Here are my first impressions from the series:

Allen Craig was the star of the game yesterday. The two biggest hits of the game came from our promising but recently struggling outfielder/corner infielder. My gut still tells me he holds the most value to us as a trading chip, so it's good to see him start to showcase his bat.

The Cardinals have more lineup depth than advertised. Jon Jay, Randy Winn, Allen Craig, Tyler Greene... the list goes on and on. The good news is most of that has been home grown. Upgrading the shortstop position would only increase that, but I'm inclined to give Greene more chances to make an impact in that role.

Jeff Suppan is still capable of doing yeoman's work. If you look at pitch selection, Jeff has been relying on his fastball about 11% more than with Milwaukee this year. He's been worth -0.2 Runs Above Replacement as a starter with St. Louis... just about at replacement level stuff.

Adam Wainwright is the NL's leading starter. Not just because of numbers but because of the way he approaches the game. You never feel like Waino will pitch you a dud. He's one of the most reliable pitchers in the game.

Remember to vote on Saturday's poll, and send a tweet to @jawathehutt to let us know who you think the Cards deadline target should be. I'll post your ideas later this week.


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Vote on Trade Targets

Saturday, July 17, 2010 |

The LA series so far has showed what the Cards are capable of with Carpenter-Garcia-Wainwright in the rotation. Even with a lackluster lineup last night, the Cards were able to get 7 on Billingsley. Great to see.

Fangraphs with some recent scoop on Dan Haren:

"In his latest column, Jon Heyman relays the asking price for Diamondbacks ace Dan Haren. According to Heyman’s source, Arizona wants “two starting pitchers plus bullpen help” back for the ace. That’s a pretty staggering asking price, and one that probably precludes any team actually completing a trade for Haren."
With only two weeks until the trade deadline, I ask you this: who should the Cards go after, Stephen Drew or Dan Haren? Or, if you think they should target someone else - someone perhaps more affordable in prospects - leave your idea in the comments and send a tweet to @jawathehutt on Twitter.








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Trades: Should Cards make a run at SS Stephen Drew?

Friday, July 16, 2010 |

The biggest chink in the Cardinals' offense is the glaring hole in the middle infield. The Redbirds rank dead-last in shortstop batting average, second to last in OBP, and 5th from the bottom in OPS. Advanced metrics tell the same story - the Cardinals are... how you say... weak in the shortstop department.

It's true, the starting rotation probably is the biggest need facing St. Louis, but the annual argument holds constant: if you can get to the postseason, starting pitching depth becomes less crucial. Carpenter, Wainwright, and Garcia are three top-caliber starters, and Hawksworth and Suppan have provided replacement-level numbers in the four and five slots. Available starters, aside from Oswalt and Haren, are pretty underwhelming and would represent marginal improvements to the back end of the rotation.

Which leads me to the question... should the Cards inquire about Stephen Drew? Drew 2.0 is 27, plays good defense, and won't be a free agent until 2013. The D'Back shortstop comes with a first round draft pick pedigree and is making $3.4 M this year. His line is .275/.348/.416 with 4 home runs and 43 RBIs. Like many in Arizona, he strikes out more than usual (18.8%), but he has a 2.1 WAR and has been worth around $8.2 M this year. With Drew, you get an above-average-hitting shortstop under club control for 2.5 years.

Sounds great, like many other shortstops out there, but is it really worth the haul it would take to get him? My proposed deal would include Lance Lynn, Eduardo Sanchez, and Allen Craig. The Cardinals get a shortstop for the next 2.5 years, and Arizona gets a future mid-rotation starter, back-end reliever, and a Cardinal misfit who's raked at every level of the minors.

The Gist of It:  What do you think? Is Lynn/Sanchez/Craig too much for Stephen Drew or not enough? Should we focus on pitching instead and go after Danny Haren? Let us know on Twitter (http://twitter.com/JawatheHutt) or in the comments!


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