My Apologies

I explain why it's my fault why we got eliminated.

I admit it. I take full credit for what happened in the past week. Heck, I take credit for what's happened over the past month. Since I stopped blogging the Cards went 13-16 (.448)... well... technically 13-19 if you include the charade of a playoff run we attempted in LA. When Rockin' the Red was kickin', the BlogBirds went a healthy 78-56 (.582) and were the team to beat. I pretty much left off while the Dave Duncan drama-party was still in fashion, and, although that storyline has seemed to pass faster than Tony Romo passing on Britney Spears before Jessica Simpson, it still feels very awkward to witness how the season ended.

There's not a greater word to describe the ending, I feel, other than awkward. You can awkwardly meet an ex-girlfriend in the grocery store line. You can awkwardly pee in your pants on a school bus. You can awkwardly get hit in the crotch while trying to catch a fly ball to send the series back to St. Louis. You can awkwardly leave post-season play in three-straight, after being the heavy favorite and selling a good deal of the farm to assume so much.

I wish I had a great motivational speech to stir about optimism within our hearts and make us feel good again, but, alas, it's still a little awkward and I don't know if I'm ready to go down that road just yet.

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Twitter Tuesday: Reactions on Dave Duncan

It's time for another installment of Twitter Tuesdays, this time covering the speculation and reactions surrounding Dave Duncan and his future with the Cardinals.

Get to da choppa!

@bencollins01 The Joel Pineiro Cy Young campaign starts here: http://alturl.com/57bj and if Dave Duncan is leaving the Cards, #Mets please sign him up

I'm kind of confused by this fan's allegiances.

@bencollins01 and then maybe Dave Duncan can turn Oliver Perez into an actual $12M pitcher

I'm sorry to say that Oliver Perez is very much the anti-Dave Duncan - 0.69 career GB/FB, stubborn, home run prone, etc. Heck, while we're at it, let's turn Tim Redding into the next Woody Williams too.

@throatwarbler For the record - I would like to see Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan return for 2010. #stlcards Best tandem since Herzog/Roarke

Let's not kid ourselves. TLR/DD have been better. Controversial, but true. I smell a research topic.

@injuryexpert RT @BaseballStone: The two top free agents are tony La Russa and dave duncan. Duncan is still smarting about the way his son was traded.

Matt Holliday begs to differ.

@JohnLGoodman Wonder what Dave Duncan thinks of the Joba Rules?????

But I wanna know what he tinks of Wainwight Wules... :(

@briansalgado Are Cubs the next stop? RT @BaseballStone: 2 top FAs, tony La Russa & dave duncan. Duncan still smarting about way his son was traded

What? Your precious Lou Pinella not good enough for you?

@PRINCE_OF_NY The growing possibility that Dave Duncan might leave the Cardinals. (The Mets should open the checkbook.)

Ah, the checkbook. Fitting thing for a Prince of New York to say. How did that turn out with Rick Peterson? Ok, just checking. Say, who named you the prince anyway?

@aboutfiftymillionotherpostswantinghimtocometoNewYork ...

Seriously, some fans will jump on any bandwagon they can and throw money at their problems like it's candy. No, Dave Duncan will not go to New York. It's a good possibility that Duncan could leave at the end of the season, but I have a suspicion that winning will play a factor in the end.

Summary: what Dave Duncan giveth, he can taketh away. Or something like that.

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Dave Duncan is Mad

The schism between Dave Duncan and everybody else is getting bigger, and it could lead to his departure at the end of the season.

I realize that the posting schedule here has been a little erratic here lately, and I apologize for not having fresh, relevant content for you to read each morning as you "work" or, like me, "study." Truth is, school and life comes first, even in the midst of one of the strongest Cardinals ballclubs in the past decade, and I'm still trying to get as much in order as a college kid can.

I did want to comment on the new drama that's erupted on a, for the most part, drama-less team. The schism that's appearing between Dave Duncan and the Cardinals seems like it's widening, and there seem to be many to blame but none at fault for the divide.

Joe Strauss writes for the P-D:

[Dave Duncan] is angry — publicly so at a St. Louis media he believes stoked last month's trade of his outfielder son Chris to the Boston Red Sox and, until now, privately at a franchise that has created a minor-league pitching philosophy independent of his and bullpen coach Marty Mason's input.

The latter half of that statement is, what I believe, will be the undoing of Dave Duncan, much more so than the exile of his son. Duncan's disapproval is great enough that Strauss writes that many believe it is a "precursor to him leaving after this season, " which "only gained steam last week when Duncan asked general manager John Mozeliak for a one-day leave of absence upon the team's return from a 5-2 West Coast trip to address "personal business."

In short, Dave Duncan is unhappy about two things - the way his son was treated by the organization and its fanbase, and the way he's being usurped by the FO in pitcher development. Sadly, I don't really see this finding a happy ending, as Duncan has been quick to call the media's bluff but never has criticized his own organization quite as much as he has recently.

I do believe that Chris Duncan always did carry the burden of being a coach's son, but the nonsense of him being "unfairly treated" is overblown. Tony La Russa mentions Duncan's '06 stretch as something to give Chris credibility, but for the past year and a half, Duncan has had almost zero value. That's not an exaggeration, his Runs Above Replacement (RAR) in '08 was 0.7 and this year was -3.3. In the same way that Jason Isringhausen was escorted out, in the same way Jim Edmonds was escorted out, Chris Duncan was treated just like all the others.

There was a variety of reasons why Chris was traded, including the fact that he would be due for arbitration next year, and trading him now brought the bounty of Julio Lugo for a year and a half, with his entire $13.5 million remaining salary paid for by Boston. Lugo alone has played at a 4.4 RAR level in just his time in St. Louis. Best of all, his acquisition gives us a ton of leverage next year.

The trade was a really, really good one, especially now since Chris was released by Boston a week ago and could be had for free. Chris, in fact, was given the benefit of a doubt for almost two years. It's apparent he was injured, and more should have been done by all parties to address it. It was a wonder that he was even able to start playing again after his surgery, but his refusal to acknowledge that there was something wrong - doing so would probably have won him even more credibility - and the club's refusal to force it down on him, left everyone involved as a reason his lack of performance wasn't justified.

I'm sure I'm generalizing the situation a lot from the complexities that factor into it, but the constant complaining that Chris Duncan was undone by the organization and its fans is annoying and untrue. If Duncan was hurt, he should have said so. If he wasn't hurting, then his performance truly was terrible and should have been replaced, like he was.

All in all, it's a hairy situation, and I hope we don't lose Dave Duncan, one of the greatest pitching coaches of all-time, because of it.

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5 Things I've Learned at School

I know this is very un-Cardinal-related, but I thought I'd share a few pointers I've learned during my first week of school. Heck, I'm sure the locker room is like this. Just pretend it's Colby Rasmus writing home to his mom after his first week in St. Louis.

What I've learned in my first week back in college, living in a all-male dorm.

1. Guys are green. The "if it's yellow, let it mellow; if it's brown, flush it down" is a rule most live by in the house. Unfortunately, that last phrase gets neglected sometimes. Which makes me wonder: how do you forget to do that? Did you have a pressing business meeting and forget your TPS report in your car? No, you are a lazy college student with a propensity to leave the scene of the crime without cleaning up the evidence.

2. Don't expect to get studying done in your room, especially if you have a TV. A.) Unless you can study to T.I. and 'Lil Wayne spitting beats on money and girls with booties the size of a yoga ball (pretty big), or Andy Sandberg attempting to explain to us that he is indeed not on land, you're pretty much screwed. B.) With ESPN always an option right in front of you, especially with the Little League World Series on, you're double screwed. Eventually you end up as a rapping kid-watcher who doesn't know how to operate a solid investment strategy. Trust me, you do.

3. No matter how much you attempt to keep your room organized, you won't. As an obsessive-compulsive, anal-retentive person, I need to have things stay the way they are, where I put them. Then you get some papers from every single organization on campus. Then you get free cups with coupons that expire in a week and little highlighters that you aren't quite sure if you'll use but are too afraid that you might be able to find a use for them that you don't know where to put. Then you have clothes that you are too lazy to put in a hamper. All of a sudden, it looks like a F-5 tornado hit your room, complete with DOROTHY's little metal balls used to calculate it's pattern. Sadly, my room is one of the cleaner ones.

4. You are free to walk around in your boxers as much as you'd like. No girls means you can live like a caveman. Unfortunately, there's those people that take this PRIVILEGE too much like a right and begin to exploit it to it's boundaries. It's almost as if when you put a group of guys together, we try to revert as closely to being cavemen as we possibly can without finding weapons and fighting for space on the couch. Eh, sometimes that happens too. *raises hand* Guilty.

5. Drama is a fictitious apparition brought about by intertwining men and women together. Out here, in the outback of all-male living, drama does not exist. It's almost as if there could be, but we simply are too lazy to let it become drama. In this secluded part of society, men are men. If you wronged me, I tell you. If I wronged you, you tell me. Crisis averted, and we all can go back to solving bigger problems in life, like finding out the culprit in number one.

6. It's fun. If you haven't lived in all-gender housing at one point in your life, I hope you can experience it sometime. I'm sure I'll get sick of it by next week, but, until then, I have to go figure out where that smell is coming from.

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Twitter Tuesday: Smoltz and More

I'm starting a new series here to help break the monotony of the week, called Twitter Tuesdays. I'll look for interesting, funny, or informative Cards-related Twitter posts around the interweb and post them here. Call it getting a feel for the buzz of Cardinal Nation, to put it in ESPN terms. Ah, social media networking at its finest.

Let's get the ball rolling:

@tpriddy Was John Smoltz's sudden success Sunday with the Cards because he stopped tipping pitches to opposing batters? http://tinyurl.com/npu44l

TLR thinks it's "pretty clear" that Smoltz was tipping his pitches. John Smoltz doesn't tip pitches; he just lets the batter know what's coming out of mercy.

@thisisronney Wait, John Smoltz..its ALIVE!..ITS ALIVE! I believe D man still got some gasoline in 'em. I support D Hall of Famer, St.LCards looking good.

Scientists have proven that 99% of the world's energy resources could be provided by the velocity of John Smoltz's fastball. He was merely taking a break to let them test it.

@blog4democracy Happy debut for Smoltz; Vick's is next: Once upon a time, they were three of Atlanta's most hugged athletes. Wha.. http://bit.ly/caaj5

Just don't let Vick hug your dog.

@JimmyDPHI I'm so glad I live in a world where John Smoltz is good again.

John Smoltz can affect our perspectives on the world. Point proven.

@BeantownSports And for those of you thinking "Why can't we get guys like that" after Smoltz's Cards debut, he allowed 31 ER in his last 31 IP for the Sox!

... maybe because he hated playing there.

@BeantownSports St. Louis ... where Red Sox castoffs go to flourish (Pineiro, Lugo, Smoltz...)

Perhaps Boston should be rethinking their "castoffs." No, no, no. Gut reaction is waaaaaaaaaay easier.

@AScorpioPassion Just to let everybody know Long time NL Pitchers can't pitch in the AL,Look at Smoltz he was Horrible in the AL but in the NL he's good

Yeah.. man. I feel ya, man. Totally. Look at freakin' Josh Beckett. He sucks, man. Freakin' sucks.

@Center_Field New post: F You, John Smoltz (http://cli.gs/Ez7J4) #redsox

I guess I'm no longer invited to the Christmas party?

That's all I got today. And remember, you stay classy, Boston.

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Don't Call It a Comeback

It's been John Smoltz week over here, and we're not about to stop now. Dissecting the first start from the ex-Bostonian, ex-Atlantan, but definitely not ex-Good Pitcher.

If only for one start, John showed us what it's like to have a capable pitcher pitching at the back-end of the rotation. My initial observations showed - forgive the cliche - a pitcher who truly knows how to pitch (at this point I just spilled yogurt on my keyboard. yep, i'm a college kid), and not in the way Al Hrabosky might bandy about pitcher X because he throws more than a fastball. Smoltz still has incredible movement on his pitches; he knows how to make his pitches do what he wants, a trait that the entire 5th rotation spot has been unable to do, for the most part, this entire year.

Visual observations will also show just how much Smoltz is at ease on the pitcher's mound, despite the recent struggles and exile from Boston. There were times when I wondered if he was hurt just because of how effortless his delivery was, as if he wasn't even trying. I remember in the first inning mumbling under my breath, "Crap, him too?" Yeah, him too ended up absolutely cruising through 5 innings of 3-hit ball, no walks issued and facing only 3 over the minimum.

Smoltz has a chip on his shoulder, and he's the kind of guy you want to have playing on your side when that happens. I swear he could have been part of a Dr. Pepper commercial when he said this, courtesy of Matt Leach and STLCardinals.com:

"I still believe I've got the intensity and the experience to pitch in big games... that's what this team and this franchise have been about, and I think you're going to be pleasantly surprised, or I wouldn't be here today."

"... Trust me, I'm a doctor."

The numbers certainly show a pitcher who still has gas in the tank. 9 strikeouts, regardless of who you're playing, in 5 innings is ace-worthy, and he did that without walking any batters in between. Let's dig a little deeper into the numbers of his first start, with the huge disclaimer of sample size flashing in bright lights.

44.4% of balls hit in play went for groundouts, a little less than two percentage points below his career average. No line drives were recorded as being hit, and his infield fly ball rate was 20%, compared to an 8.3% career IFFB%.

In one start alone with the Cardinals, Smoltz has a 0.4 WAR and is worth $1.8 million dollars. Yes, you read that right. He's worth $1.8 million based on his one start alone.

Some more numbers from the first start, while we're on a roll: his xFIP is currently 0.98 with St. Louis, his WHIP is 0.60, and his SLG-allowed is .222. And, of course, the all-important ERA is Zero Point Zero Zero.

John Smoltz showed us yesterday why we might be "pleasantly surprised" by his return to the National League. John, I'm sorry to say, it isn't really a surprise after all.

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My Money's on Smoltz

It appears that the Cards are on the verge of signing John Smoltz, who officially becomes a free agent today. Let me rephrase that: John Smoltz is on the cusp of bestowing the Cardinals with his graces. After all... above all, this is his choice, as he will be making the same amount of moneda no matter where he goes, with the Sawx footing the brunt of the bill. Hey, at least it's not drama to the extent of Brett Favre.

I had to say it.

I will say that, like Mark DeRosa, this is a move that I had proposed before the internet caught fire with it. (Sometimes it feels good to pat yourself on the back, especially on a blog that features you being wrong 99% of the time). Does that make it the right one? Not necessarily, but I do think it's a logical acquisition that has no real downside.

Even in the rotation, where the Cards are supposedly looking to insert Smoltz, he would be an upgrade from Boggs/Wellemeyer/Thompson/whoever else Tony might throw a ball and a jersey at. Personally, I believe Smoltz will be best suited for the bullpen to play a pseudo-ROOGY role, as an onslaught of statistics will show, but his time in the rotation with Boston wasn't all that bad. Take it from The Hardball Times:

If you are a believer in xFIP [4.32], which adjusts for that HR/FB luck, then he has been pitching like a league average starter, which is quite a feat while pitching in a hitters ballpark and in the toughest division in baseball.

Now take that insight and apply it to the Cardinals, where he will be playing in a pitcher's park and in one of the weaker divisions in baseball.

The Cardinals also may very well be hoping to put Smoltz in the back of the rotation with the thought process that he could become the set-up man in October. That's thinking pretty far in advance, but it is a potential factor in a post-season bound team.

If Smoltz can merely pitch at the league average rate - 4.32 xFIP - he will have been an upgrade over Wellemeyer - 5.32 xFIP - and Boggs - 4.85 xFIP. My money's on him being able to do that, and my money's on Smoltz helping this team going forward.

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A Miller's Tale

The Cards got their man, nearly two months after they got their other man - or kid, I should say. Shelby Miller, the first round pick and new life spring of the Cardinals farm system, inked a bonus of nearly $2.9 million scrilla on the eve of the signing deadline. The collective Cardinal Nation rejoices, here's why...

Three straight no-hitters. Mid-nineties fastball. "Already built like a 200-inning frontline starting pitcher."

Shelby Miller is the real deal, unlike how Justin Pope was the real deal before being traded to the Yankees for Sterling Hitchcock in '03. To put Shelby's $2.9 million bonus in perspective, it comes in just behind J.D. Drew's $3 million in 1998 and above Rick Ankiel's $2.5 million in '97 and Chad Hutchinson's $2.3 million in '98.

Perhaps the most highly touted pitching prospect coming into the Cards' system since Rick Ankiel, here's a bit of Mike Craven's scouting report at Prospect Insider:

Fastball: Typically clocked between 90 and 92, touching the mid-90s at times. Shows some natural sink and a decent movement.

Slider: The tighter of his two breaking balls, clocked in the 85-87 mph range and generally commanded better than his curve ball. Could ultimately be his best pitch.

Curve: Coming out of his hand at 72-76 mph, Miller's curve is what fools most prep batters. He piles up the strikeouts by setting hitters up with the velocity on his fastball, getting ahead and then flipping the curve somewhere near the plate.

Changeup: As with most prep arms, Miller's changeup is a work-in-progress, and since he doesn't need it to dominate in the high school ranks, his focus on the pitch between outings will be critical.

Mechanics/Delivery: Miller throws from a high arm slot, nearly straight over the top - not quite Joel Pineiro, but he's not a 3/4 slot guy, either. He creates decent plane on his pitches, particularly his fastball.

Here's a look at what Twitter is saying (sic'd):

DanManSTL: On a night when Shelby Miller eclipses Ank's draft contract record, Ricky homers FTW, Franklin closes, and Carpenter goes RAWR! Love it!

Don't make Carp angry. You wouldn't like him when he's angry.

MilliGFunk: Can I just say it doesn't suck to graduate H.S. and make 3MIL/year playing pro ball? #stlcards (Shelby Miller)

To set the record straight, the $2.9 million is a bonus, not an annual salary. Shelby will still be making the minimum until he's up for arbitration or signed long-term.

FishSTL: Why did we give Shelby Miller close to 3 million? Its so stupid for rookies to get so much money.

Fair critique. The reality is Shelby hasn't proven anything yet, and the Cards went above slot to sign him. I'd rather commit nearly $3 million to him than give a $1.4 million bonus to another Pete Kozma, though.

jdshaw30: Another good thing about the Cards getting Shelby Miller signed: MU won't have to face him at A&M

SEMO won't have to either. Oh, wait... we wouldn't have anyways.

spencergriffin: congrats to @jluhnow on the shelby miller signing. makes me a happy man and takes a little sting out of wallace and mort's exit.

Little chocolate donuts make me a happy man, but this is much more satisfying.

realslimfish: New Cardinal signee Shelby Miller had 150k's in 77 Innings pitched last year in HS. impressive, Have to wonder about the competition tho

Domination is domination. High school pitchers are harder to project, of course, but the consensus has been Shelby has good objective stuff, not just subjective numbers.

JTontheCards: congrats 2 Cardinals 4 ponying up the $$ (2.875 M) to sign 1st rd pick Shelby Miller...future ace

4 realz.

untreatable: Shelby Miller Signs With Arizona Cardinals Photos: The Arizona Cardinals were able to sign first round draft pic..

Wait a minute... that's not right...

C70: Very nice to see Shelby Miller sign for less than $3 million. Good to have that kind of talent in the system. #stlcardinals

C70, I'm with you here.

aharder23: I love the Shelby Miller signing. Cardinals are doing everything possible right now, to satisfy their fan base. Now, sign Smoltz & I'm happy

I echo that last comment. The Cards did well with the Shelby signing, keeping it under $3 million, but they shouldn't be done yet. John Smoltz is still looming, and he's officially a free agent now. Maybe beating up the Dodgers will convince him his World Series hopes truly lie with the Redbirds...

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Dance Colby, Dance

Many of you, like me, may have been curiously intrigued by Colby's new walk-up music. Some hate it, while others, like me, think it could be part of the most BA slow-motion-while-wearing-aviators-and-a-handlebar-mustache scene in the history of cinematics. The song is D.A.N.C.E. by Justice, a French electric-indie duo who has won numerous non-mainstream awards. You be the judge.

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Go See District 9

While you're waiting for baseball to start again at approximately 7:15 tonight, go see District 9. Got to see it at the midnight showing last night, and I really have to say that this movie rocked. A unique and entertaining sci-fi that addresses greater cultural issues, I really can't think of a movie to compare it to. It's that different. Best movie I've seen all summer? I would think so.

The Cardinals rock
But off days are rough for me
Please, more baseball now

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