New Place, Same Face?

I came across a cool tool at Baseball Think Factory that allows you to use in-season numbers to project what players' numbers at the end of the season will be. I thought it'd be good to look at our starting rotation after one month, especially after the Mulder talk (where's Scully when you need her?) and a good-as-always post at Viva El Birdos. Keep in mind these projections are using ZiPS calculations pertaining to each specific player, so they are not just a projection of what our rotation is "on pace" for. I'll look at Kyle Lohse today and the rest of the rotation tomorrow, as this projection stands out to me:

	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO
Current	3	0	2.36	6	6	34.1	32	9	0	8	14
Projected	11	8	4.02	34	30	181.1	192	81	15	51	100

The reason this projection stands out is that the Jeff Suppan comparison that is oft-applied to Lohse holds eerily true here. Jeff Suppan's final line with the Cards before bolting for more dollars in Milwaukee, in his age 31 season:

	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	HR	BB	SO
2006	12	7	4.12	32	32	190.0	207	87	21	69	104

Without a doubt, there'll be a big payday in store for Kyle if he can keep to his current projection, most likely in the range of Suppan's $10 million per year. That price tag could be too high for the Cards to be handing out, especially with the likes of Jaime Garcia, Clayton Mortensen, and others nearing Triple-A and a surplus of pitching in the rotation as it is. If you consider the possible bounty we could get for Lohse if has an ERA near 3.50 at the end of July (think top 5 or 10 prospect), the best option may very well be to trade him to another contender. Even if the Cards are doing well at that point, it could still be the best course of action, assuming either Mark Mulder or Matt Clement are able to get healthy (which, as we all know by now, is definitely not a given).

You gotta like what we've been able to get out of 'lil Soup so far. He has kept the ball in the park and the hits low, all despite missing out on a large chunk of Spring Training with the ballclub. His FIP is a very good 2.91, and he has lowered his walk rate to 5.8%. Although it's still early and things could change in a hurry, the Cards are looking pretty good right now with their bargain bin steal.