Some of you may have been wondering whether the unexpected success of David Freese, our sole remnant left from the Jim Edmonds era, is something we can bank on. His line: .313/.386/.442, 3 home runs, 28 RBIs, and a 1.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement value). He's on pace for 11 home runs and 98 RBIs, and he's been a monster at home this season: .403/1.101 at home, .233/.584 away.
That's not all when it comes to David Freese. He's also barely outside the top 10 (number 11) for all third basemen in UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating, learn more about the metric here). Meaning, he's in the top third of all third basemen in fielding, even above Scott Rolen and A-Rod. Clearly, his success has come from both aspects of his game.
The main question is, is D-Freese for real? While it may be just a result of me ignorantly drinking the Cardinals Kool-aid, I think so. When looking at his numbers, there aren't any huge anomalies that stick out as red flags, other than the oh-so-loved BABIP that's mentioned here so much. His BABIP is a healthy .393, the fourth-highest in all of baseball, behind Austin Jackson, Jason Morneau, and Austin Kearns. Very rarely do players finish the season with such an extraordinarily high BABIP; David Wright did it last year, finishing with a .394 BABIP, but high BABIP's are usually reserved for players who manufacture a lot of their hits through speed or sheer power. Freese doesn't have a lot of either, so it's plausible to think he will hit a little bit of a decline later this season.
Still, it doesn't seem like there are any other tell-tales that this season is a fluke. His BB% is right in line with where it's always been, his isolated power is pretty far below where it's always been, his contact rates don't scream lucky, and his K% is just about the same as well. A big indicator of his success could be his line drive percentage, which is up from 12% to 21.6% this year. Line drives typically land as hits, so a number like that is good to see.
As for defense, I trust UZR a lot, and I also don't think it's a number that can be influenced too greatly by luck. It's a skill stat, and Freese has done surprisingly well manning the hot corner.
Ultimately, I expect David to regress a little bit. He's still fairly green in the MLB, and teams may not have figured out the best way to pitch to him yet. There will come a time when he starts to struggle, but, for now, I think we have ourselves a keeper.
Saturday, May 29, 2010
Friday, May 28, 2010
Photo: KISS at the Ballpark
What was KISS legend Gene Simmons doing at Busch Stadium, you ask? Trying to score unsuspecting ladies, of course.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
What's the deal with Matt Holliday?
There's a lot of buzz going around Busch Stadium concerning the prime acquisition of the off-season, Matt Holliday. Production-wise, Holliday has been nowhere near his half-season run with the Cards last year, when he had a 1.023 OPS, 13 home runs, and .353 batting average, and the fans are starting to wonder where Albert's protection has gone. Especially on nights like last, when the Cards couldn't even get one run to support their ace. What happened to him this year?
As much as I wish I had a clear-cut answer, the numbers don't do as much to explain this year's struggles as they do to explain why last year's tenure in St. Louis was a bit of an anomaly. First this: which set of numbers looks more akin to this year's .289/.355/.458 line?
A) .286/.378/.454
B) .353/.419/.604
Now, what if I said both A) and B) were in the same season? Holliday's numbers this year are much more comparable with A), his part of the 2009 season in Oakland before being traded to St. Louis. B) represents his part of the season after the trade to St. Louis. What changed from the end of last season to this year? The all-important luck indicator BABIP explains a little bit, as his end of season run in St. Louis was sustained by an extremely high .380 BABIP (the baseline BABIP is around .300). This year, Holliday's BABIP is back down to .323, which is a little high but still pretty average for his career. He's hitting balls that just aren't landing on the grass quite as much.
Two other changes this year are apparent, perhaps explaining some of his struggles this year. First, his walk percentage (BB%) is down to 7.7%, below his 10.7% composite last year. Being able to walk is a huge part of maintaining production - just ask Colby Rasmus. The next goes hand-in-hand with that - his outside the strike zone swing percentage is the highest of his career at 29.9%, above his 24.9% composite last year. He's still making contact with those pitches at a 65.1% clip, but the fact remains that he's making contact with balls outside of the sweet zone. It would be interesting to see a graphic of where these pitches have been and what the subsequent result of the contact was, but I would venture to say that he's not hitting the ball as cleanly because it's outside the zone.
Hopefully, we'll see Holliday start to smash the ball soon, but, for now, I think he needs to be a little more patient at the plate and choose his pitches a little more wisely. More importantly, I think we need to adjust our expectations a tad. Holliday isn't going to have numbers that are sustained by a .380 BABIP, give or take a few. He's still valuable, but a .350 batting average is a little unrealistic at this point.
Video of the day: Our prize-winning video for financial literacy at SEMO, not directed by M. Night Shyamalan.
As much as I wish I had a clear-cut answer, the numbers don't do as much to explain this year's struggles as they do to explain why last year's tenure in St. Louis was a bit of an anomaly. First this: which set of numbers looks more akin to this year's .289/.355/.458 line?
A) .286/.378/.454
B) .353/.419/.604
Now, what if I said both A) and B) were in the same season? Holliday's numbers this year are much more comparable with A), his part of the 2009 season in Oakland before being traded to St. Louis. B) represents his part of the season after the trade to St. Louis. What changed from the end of last season to this year? The all-important luck indicator BABIP explains a little bit, as his end of season run in St. Louis was sustained by an extremely high .380 BABIP (the baseline BABIP is around .300). This year, Holliday's BABIP is back down to .323, which is a little high but still pretty average for his career. He's hitting balls that just aren't landing on the grass quite as much.
Two other changes this year are apparent, perhaps explaining some of his struggles this year. First, his walk percentage (BB%) is down to 7.7%, below his 10.7% composite last year. Being able to walk is a huge part of maintaining production - just ask Colby Rasmus. The next goes hand-in-hand with that - his outside the strike zone swing percentage is the highest of his career at 29.9%, above his 24.9% composite last year. He's still making contact with those pitches at a 65.1% clip, but the fact remains that he's making contact with balls outside of the sweet zone. It would be interesting to see a graphic of where these pitches have been and what the subsequent result of the contact was, but I would venture to say that he's not hitting the ball as cleanly because it's outside the zone.
Hopefully, we'll see Holliday start to smash the ball soon, but, for now, I think he needs to be a little more patient at the plate and choose his pitches a little more wisely. More importantly, I think we need to adjust our expectations a tad. Holliday isn't going to have numbers that are sustained by a .380 BABIP, give or take a few. He's still valuable, but a .350 batting average is a little unrealistic at this point.
Video of the day: Our prize-winning video for financial literacy at SEMO, not directed by M. Night Shyamalan.
Tuesday, May 25, 2010
Appreciating Wainwright
I wanted to take a moment to recognize one of the most productive pitchers in the league, one that I feel is a little unappreciated in the entire scope of the baseball world. Adam Wainwright, the Wagonmaker, is perhaps having his best season yet. His ERA - 2.49 - is the best of his career, but his success goes way beyond the superficial ERA. Nearly every statistical category shows Adam's dominance this season, from his career-best 0.28 HR/9, to his near career-topping 3.17 K/BB, just below his 3.27 K/BB in 2006. While his Batting Average on Balls hit In Play (BABIP, a general luck statistic) is a relatively low .267, something that will probably regress back up to around .300, his strand rate (LOB%) is lower than last year - 75.5% compared to 80.4% - suggesting that he's had a little less luck involved when runners are on base.
Digging a little deeper, Adam has relied on his curveball 29.7% of the time, compared to 24% last year and even less in years before. Consequently, the mixture of off-speed pitches has decreased his need for the fastball, which has dropped nearly 10% to 40.7%. Other statistics are equally as interesting: hitters are making better contact on pitches Wainwright throws outside the strike zone - 66.4% - but less contact on pitches inside the zone - 83.6%. First pitch strike percentage has remained largely level - 61% - but swinging strikes have spiked up 0.9% to 9.8%. To put that in perspective, Tim Lincecum's swinging strike percentage is around 13.4% and was 10.7% last year.
To those, like me, who thought Wainwright was unfairly denied the Cy Young last year, Waino is on track for the same type of photo finish with Lincecum this year. Lincecum currently has a 2.50 FIP and 2.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), compared to Wainwright's 2.74 FIP and 2.0 WAR. Lincecum was indeed worth more in WAR than Adam last year, but this year's numbers tell a much closer story. To those who think Ubaldo Jimenez has it in the bag already, his FIP is one point below Adam's at 2.73. His BABIP is an obscenely low .225, and I don't expect that to hold over the course of a season. How will it all shake out? I think we probably need another month to make an official prediction, but I'm going to unofficially say Wainwright will be in the CY mix in the end. For now, I'm just happy to say he's a Cardinal.
Digging a little deeper, Adam has relied on his curveball 29.7% of the time, compared to 24% last year and even less in years before. Consequently, the mixture of off-speed pitches has decreased his need for the fastball, which has dropped nearly 10% to 40.7%. Other statistics are equally as interesting: hitters are making better contact on pitches Wainwright throws outside the strike zone - 66.4% - but less contact on pitches inside the zone - 83.6%. First pitch strike percentage has remained largely level - 61% - but swinging strikes have spiked up 0.9% to 9.8%. To put that in perspective, Tim Lincecum's swinging strike percentage is around 13.4% and was 10.7% last year.
To those, like me, who thought Wainwright was unfairly denied the Cy Young last year, Waino is on track for the same type of photo finish with Lincecum this year. Lincecum currently has a 2.50 FIP and 2.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), compared to Wainwright's 2.74 FIP and 2.0 WAR. Lincecum was indeed worth more in WAR than Adam last year, but this year's numbers tell a much closer story. To those who think Ubaldo Jimenez has it in the bag already, his FIP is one point below Adam's at 2.73. His BABIP is an obscenely low .225, and I don't expect that to hold over the course of a season. How will it all shake out? I think we probably need another month to make an official prediction, but I'm going to unofficially say Wainwright will be in the CY mix in the end. For now, I'm just happy to say he's a Cardinal.
Saturday, May 15, 2010
Pujols and his dreaded contract
I'm going to go out on a limb and take credit for Albert's first home run in 16 games. Yesterday, in my return to the blogging ring, I made a point to show Albert some love. Here's the full quote:
Speaking of love, I love how Ryan Howard's mid-season contract now means that Albert will no longer be a Cardinal. It's like Ramen noodles. Instant storyline without much substance. The fact of the matter is, Albert probably is worth more than $25 million a year. Howard is receiving $25 million from his new contract, and it's within every realm of rationality that Albert would be worth 20%-50% more than Howard. However, the Cardinals still hold a club option for $16 million in 2011. No matter what, Albert will be here for his age 31 season.
J.C. Bradbury has an interesting take on how much Albert could command when his contract expires.
First, you must project the expected cash flows of the targeted company, then discounting them to find the Net Present Value. In this case, cash flows would be estimated production. Which metric you would use would be personal preference, but my guess is it would be objective measures of player worth like OBP, SLG, and more sabermetric stats. You would then take those projections and monetize them much like FanGraphs converts Wins Above Replacement to dollars. Those dollars could then be discounted. That would be the $19.5 number J.C. came up with.
Second, you calculate target company worth by multiplying share price by the number of shares outstanding. This would be analogous to what the perceived market value of the player would be. Finding close player comps - perhaps A-Rod and Howard in this case - would be as close as we could get to what the market might value Pujols at.
Thirdly, you make the decision whether or not to purchase the company by comparing projected value with market value. Typically, a 10-20% premium on the share price is needed to successfully purchase the company. If NPV is already 0 with the current market price, then you probably won't be able to buy the company, since a premium would make NPV drop below 0 and thus be unprofitable. Comparably, you would make the decision whether or not that player is affordable, based on what your projections forecast. I would guess that a 10-20% premium over the market price is probably still applicable in the free agent market, although there are other factors like "hometown team" and "winning ballclub" that could affect how much a player will accept.
Putting it all together, if Albert's market value is estimated to be around A-Rod's $28 million, then a 20% premium on that would be around $34 million. I don't think Albert will command $50 million like some are saying, and I think a realistic number would be between 30 and 40. The decision would then be with the Cardinals' forecasted projections and whether they would provide $34 million worth of production a year. If not, then it would be prudent to let him walk. At least, that's what we're supposed to rationally do.
In the end, no one really knows what Albert will command until this season and next is up. For now, let's just not worry about it.
Let's give some love to Albert. Sure, he's not doing as well as last year numbers-wise, but old boy is at it again.I showed Albert some love. That's all he needed. A little less lambasting about his "struggles," a little more sultry sweet talk to get his mind right. It's the secret to life - show a little love, get a little love back.
Speaking of love, I love how Ryan Howard's mid-season contract now means that Albert will no longer be a Cardinal. It's like Ramen noodles. Instant storyline without much substance. The fact of the matter is, Albert probably is worth more than $25 million a year. Howard is receiving $25 million from his new contract, and it's within every realm of rationality that Albert would be worth 20%-50% more than Howard. However, the Cardinals still hold a club option for $16 million in 2011. No matter what, Albert will be here for his age 31 season.
J.C. Bradbury has an interesting take on how much Albert could command when his contract expires.
So, how much is Albert Pujols worth if commands a salary in line with what Ryan Howard received? Yesterday, I estimated that Howard was worth about $19.5 million per year over the term of his contract, so $25 million is approximately 28% more than his projected worth. If Pujols signed a deal for the same timespan, I estimate that he would be worth $40 million per year. Thus, if Pujols received a premium similar to Howard’s, he would be worth $51 million per year, almost exactly what Law estimated.This scenario is interestingly analogous to making the decision to buy a company.
First, you must project the expected cash flows of the targeted company, then discounting them to find the Net Present Value. In this case, cash flows would be estimated production. Which metric you would use would be personal preference, but my guess is it would be objective measures of player worth like OBP, SLG, and more sabermetric stats. You would then take those projections and monetize them much like FanGraphs converts Wins Above Replacement to dollars. Those dollars could then be discounted. That would be the $19.5 number J.C. came up with.
Second, you calculate target company worth by multiplying share price by the number of shares outstanding. This would be analogous to what the perceived market value of the player would be. Finding close player comps - perhaps A-Rod and Howard in this case - would be as close as we could get to what the market might value Pujols at.
Thirdly, you make the decision whether or not to purchase the company by comparing projected value with market value. Typically, a 10-20% premium on the share price is needed to successfully purchase the company. If NPV is already 0 with the current market price, then you probably won't be able to buy the company, since a premium would make NPV drop below 0 and thus be unprofitable. Comparably, you would make the decision whether or not that player is affordable, based on what your projections forecast. I would guess that a 10-20% premium over the market price is probably still applicable in the free agent market, although there are other factors like "hometown team" and "winning ballclub" that could affect how much a player will accept.
Putting it all together, if Albert's market value is estimated to be around A-Rod's $28 million, then a 20% premium on that would be around $34 million. I don't think Albert will command $50 million like some are saying, and I think a realistic number would be between 30 and 40. The decision would then be with the Cardinals' forecasted projections and whether they would provide $34 million worth of production a year. If not, then it would be prudent to let him walk. At least, that's what we're supposed to rationally do.
In the end, no one really knows what Albert will command until this season and next is up. For now, let's just not worry about it.
Friday, May 14, 2010
Contact Información
For questions, comments, and advertising inquiries, drop me a line at kujo@rockinthered.com. All advertising rates are negotiable, and prime positions are available.
Please place Rockin' the Red in the subject line.
Please place Rockin' the Red in the subject line.
Huzzah! A return to the typing pad.
With more anticipation than From Justin to Kelly 2, the blog known as Rockin' the Red has arisen from the ashes that is junior year of college, ready and willing to retake its spot as a mediocre sports blog and emotional release for a distanced student wading through the marshes of cold, buffet-style pizza, essay exams, and walking 20,000 steps in a day because shuttles are less reliable than Chris Duncan's glove. Are you ready for this? I know I am, and I know this because of the sentence I just wrote. It's long, borderline run-on, and uses dated analogies. I obviously haven't lost the touch.
So, what have I been up to? Well, for starters, I...
Started my third year of college. Moved into a fraternity house. Someone peed in my room. Became President and founder of the International Business Club. Worked on a $10,000 student initiative for Student Government. Competed for a chance to go to Denmark for a business case competition. Failed. Went to Europe anyways. Became treasurer, collections agent, accountant, financial analyst, legal counsel, and all-around hated guy in the fraternity. Became overwhelmed. Became VP of Interfraternity Council, apparently because my involvement wasn't quite high enough. A little more overwhelmed. Went to D.C., to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Came back, realizing how much I had to do. Did my best to get an internship. No luck. Learned how to dance for Greek Week, and danced for charity for 12 straight hours at Dance Marathon. Had dinner with Mike Rowe from "Dirty Jobs." Gained a new appreciation for Kid Cudi. Forgot how to love. Went to St. Louis for no reason other than to be home. Learned how to be a normal college student. Took three and a half shots in one whole night. Yes, that was a half shot. Rediscovered what it means to be a Man for Others. Got recognized by the College of Business for academic achievement. Worked on financials for a start-up. Put These Come From Trees stickers up around campus. Stopped working out. Played guitar for people on stage for the first time in two years. Realized that maybe I am a good dancer all along. Witnessed a bar fight. Ran away from it like a little girl. Helped renovate a Children's Museum. Grew entirely too attached to Cape. Actually enjoyed going to school at Southeast. Finished two books on Microfinance. Cleaned a highway, donated blood, and shared a pitcher, all for the first time. Learned that it is possible to become overprogrammed, and it is important to have a little fun. Kept that 4.0. Returned to the homeland.
I could write more, but I figure that the reason people come here isn't to read about the chronicles of the author (although, if it is, let me know, since that's waaaaaaaaaaaay easier to write about). Writing on the blog just got to be too much to keep on top of, especially through the doldrums of the winter off-season. I will say, my finance classes have given me a whole new perspective on player evaluation. That may or may not be the direction I take Rockin' the Red in the future. I find business valuation to be really interesting, so it might be neat to show how it relates to baseball. In addition, there have been a lot of Cardinals blogs started since I've been gone. My analysis of games isn't too earthshaking, but I do like finance and economics and I do like baseball. Perhaps that can be my shtick.
As it is, I will point out a couple things that have been interesting in the season so far.
1.) David Freese is for real. He's not your stereotypical power-hitting third baseman, but, then again, how many of those are there really in the game anymore?
2.) Jaime Garcia and Brad Penny have performed way above expectations... and probably will regress a little as the season goes on. The key to their success? Getting ground balls and keeping the ball in the park. Yes, it really is that simple.
3.) Kyle Lohse is probably the best worst starter in the majors. Yes, his ERA is bad, but his FIP is 3.82. A whole different story.
4.) I'm not worried about Skip. He's starting to press a little bit with his outside the zone swing percentage, but a large part of his floundering has been bad luck. With a BABIP of .250, it's expected. His patience is increasing, which is a plus. The rest will come.
5.) Let's give some love to Albert. Sure, he's not doing as well as last year numbers-wise, but old boy is at it again.
That's all I have for now. Glad to be back.
Song of the Day: Pursuit of Happiness by Kid Cudi
So, what have I been up to? Well, for starters, I...
Started my third year of college. Moved into a fraternity house. Someone peed in my room. Became President and founder of the International Business Club. Worked on a $10,000 student initiative for Student Government. Competed for a chance to go to Denmark for a business case competition. Failed. Went to Europe anyways. Became treasurer, collections agent, accountant, financial analyst, legal counsel, and all-around hated guy in the fraternity. Became overwhelmed. Became VP of Interfraternity Council, apparently because my involvement wasn't quite high enough. A little more overwhelmed. Went to D.C., to the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Came back, realizing how much I had to do. Did my best to get an internship. No luck. Learned how to dance for Greek Week, and danced for charity for 12 straight hours at Dance Marathon. Had dinner with Mike Rowe from "Dirty Jobs." Gained a new appreciation for Kid Cudi. Forgot how to love. Went to St. Louis for no reason other than to be home. Learned how to be a normal college student. Took three and a half shots in one whole night. Yes, that was a half shot. Rediscovered what it means to be a Man for Others. Got recognized by the College of Business for academic achievement. Worked on financials for a start-up. Put These Come From Trees stickers up around campus. Stopped working out. Played guitar for people on stage for the first time in two years. Realized that maybe I am a good dancer all along. Witnessed a bar fight. Ran away from it like a little girl. Helped renovate a Children's Museum. Grew entirely too attached to Cape. Actually enjoyed going to school at Southeast. Finished two books on Microfinance. Cleaned a highway, donated blood, and shared a pitcher, all for the first time. Learned that it is possible to become overprogrammed, and it is important to have a little fun. Kept that 4.0. Returned to the homeland.
I could write more, but I figure that the reason people come here isn't to read about the chronicles of the author (although, if it is, let me know, since that's waaaaaaaaaaaay easier to write about). Writing on the blog just got to be too much to keep on top of, especially through the doldrums of the winter off-season. I will say, my finance classes have given me a whole new perspective on player evaluation. That may or may not be the direction I take Rockin' the Red in the future. I find business valuation to be really interesting, so it might be neat to show how it relates to baseball. In addition, there have been a lot of Cardinals blogs started since I've been gone. My analysis of games isn't too earthshaking, but I do like finance and economics and I do like baseball. Perhaps that can be my shtick.
As it is, I will point out a couple things that have been interesting in the season so far.
1.) David Freese is for real. He's not your stereotypical power-hitting third baseman, but, then again, how many of those are there really in the game anymore?
2.) Jaime Garcia and Brad Penny have performed way above expectations... and probably will regress a little as the season goes on. The key to their success? Getting ground balls and keeping the ball in the park. Yes, it really is that simple.
3.) Kyle Lohse is probably the best worst starter in the majors. Yes, his ERA is bad, but his FIP is 3.82. A whole different story.
4.) I'm not worried about Skip. He's starting to press a little bit with his outside the zone swing percentage, but a large part of his floundering has been bad luck. With a BABIP of .250, it's expected. His patience is increasing, which is a plus. The rest will come.
5.) Let's give some love to Albert. Sure, he's not doing as well as last year numbers-wise, but old boy is at it again.
That's all I have for now. Glad to be back.
Song of the Day: Pursuit of Happiness by Kid Cudi
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