Monday, July 26, 2010

Considering Roy Oswalt

Busy, busy past week. The Cardinals go on a rollercoaster ride with streaks, finally ending on top of a 4-3 extra-inning game in Chicago. Dan Haren gets traded to the Angels, with many pundits wondering if he could get re-traded to someone else. And, of all the trade targets on the market, the Cardinals have been most linked to division rival and long-time Cardinal enemy, Roy Oswalt.

The latest, then, on the prospects of getting Oswalt this July, per Joe Strauss:
Mozeliak described any move as "certainly not imminent at this time," then hinted that the market may be too steep to find any significant upgrade for the rotation. He relayed the sentiment after a brief dugout meeting with manager Tony La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan.

"At this point, it's entirely possible that there may not be a deal out there" for pitching, Mozeliak said. "We're continuing to explore avenues, but as we speak I can't say I'm encouraged."
Despite all the indications that Roy would restructure his deal if it meant getting to be in St. Louis, the price tag is still mighty hefty - $16 M in 2011 and a $16 M option in 2012 with a $2 M buyout. The Astros are said to be wanting a player already on the roster, plus at least two more big-name prospects. Jon Jay would probably be a part of that package, with Lance Lynn almost assuredly part of the deal to keep Shelby Miller from being involved, which would be a worst-case scenario. Fernando Salas is another name that could be desirable in a deal.

There are a lot of outside influences that could affect this situation. What is Albert Pujols' take on the deal... would he be willing to backload his future contract to make room for a big-name acquisition? How bad does Houston want to trade Oswalt... bad enough to make a fair deal with a division rival? Will Bill DeWitt open the pocketbooks in 2011 and, potentially, 2012?

The Cardinals already have $67.3 M obligated in 2011, and that's not including Albert's extra $11 M option (see Cot's Contracts spreadsheet for a breakdown). I think the Cardinals can make it work, but it would take a lot of creativity and a lot of concessions by Roy Oswalt. Indians' starters Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook seem like easier deals to work out, but that's assuming the Cards decide to go pitching. I'm not quite sold on that yet.

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