Appreciating Wainwright

I wanted to take a moment to recognize one of the most productive pitchers in the league, one that I feel is a little unappreciated in the entire scope of the baseball world. Adam Wainwright, the Wagonmaker, is perhaps having his best season yet. His ERA - 2.49 - is the best of his career, but his success goes way beyond the superficial ERA. Nearly every statistical category shows Adam's dominance this season, from his career-best 0.28 HR/9, to his near career-topping 3.17 K/BB, just below his 3.27 K/BB in 2006. While his Batting Average on Balls hit In Play (BABIP, a general luck statistic) is a relatively low .267, something that will probably regress back up to around .300, his strand rate (LOB%) is lower than last year - 75.5% compared to 80.4% - suggesting that he's had a little less luck involved when runners are on base.

Digging a little deeper, Adam has relied on his curveball 29.7% of the time, compared to 24% last year and even less in years before. Consequently, the mixture of off-speed pitches has decreased his need for the fastball, which has dropped nearly 10% to 40.7%. Other statistics are equally as interesting: hitters are making better contact on pitches Wainwright throws outside the strike zone - 66.4% - but less contact on pitches inside the zone - 83.6%. First pitch strike percentage has remained largely level - 61% - but swinging strikes have spiked up 0.9% to 9.8%. To put that in perspective, Tim Lincecum's swinging strike percentage is around 13.4% and was 10.7% last year.

To those, like me, who thought Wainwright was unfairly denied the Cy Young last year, Waino is on track for the same type of photo finish with Lincecum this year. Lincecum currently has a 2.50 FIP and 2.1 Wins Above Replacement (WAR), compared to Wainwright's 2.74 FIP and 2.0 WAR. Lincecum was indeed worth more in WAR than Adam last year, but this year's numbers tell a much closer story. To those who think Ubaldo Jimenez has it in the bag already, his FIP is one point below Adam's at 2.73. His BABIP is an obscenely low .225, and I don't expect that to hold over the course of a season. How will it all shake out? I think we probably need another month to make an official prediction, but I'm going to unofficially say Wainwright will be in the CY mix in the end. For now, I'm just happy to say he's a Cardinal.