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The Cardinals could potentially have 7 extra draft picks in one scenario this off-season.
The Elias Sports Bureau is the agency that ranks pending free agents according to formulas that we never will fully be able to comprehend without choosing to swallow the red pill.
The importance of these rankings is how each player ends up being classified, which determines what type of compensation the former team gets if they offer that player arbitration but he signs somewhere else. Type A free agents guarantee their former team two draft picks, one of which could be in the first round if the new team is picking in the second half of the round. If not, the former team gets the new team's second round draft pick. Either way, a supplemental "sandwich" pick is awarded to the former team in between the first and second round in addition.
Type B free agents guarantee their former team solely a supplemental pick between the first and second round. All other free agents don't reward their former team with any compensation.
So, with that out of the way, what are we looking at for our free agent class? Eddie Bajek of Detroit Tigers Thoughts "reverse-engineered" the formulas used by Elias and has ranked the players before the official rankings come out. Here's how the Cardinals shape up:
Mark DeRosa, Type B
Khalil Greene, None
Troy Glaus, Type A
Jason LaRue, None
Rick Ankiel, Type B
Joel Pineiro, Type B
Todd Wellemeyer, Type B
Trever Miller, Type A
Matt Holliday, Type A
Keeping in mind that the player must be offered arbitration and subsequently decline, there are a couple players that will probably not be offered arbitration at all. Troy Glaus, who made just over $12 million this year, would be due an increase from that if offered arbitration, since arbitration can only increase for a player. Considering that Glaus would take that deal in a heartbeat, that's not going to happen.
Likewise, Todd Wellemeyer would be due an increase from his $4.05 million he made this year. Once again, Wellemeyer would probably accept any offer like that, so we can rule him out too.
Trever Miller will be paid around $1.5 million this year after performance bonuses, so it's a good possibility that he could be offered arbitration after this year. Rick Ankiel, $2.85 million; Joel Pineiro, $7.5 million; Mark DeRosa, $5.5 million; and Matt Holliday, $13.5 million, will all be offered arbitration if long-term deals can't be worked out. The range then is 7 extra draft picks to zero, depending on if arbitration is accepted or declined and whether long-term deals are established.
Should the Cardinals choose to sign Pineiro long-term instead? What about Ankiel? Comment below to share your thoughts.
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Pending Free Agents and Elias Rankings
Friday, August 07, 2009 | 
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2 comments:
IIRC Ankiel, Wellemeyer, and Pineiro are all still on the bubble between B and nothing.
They'll all have to perform well the rest of the season to maintain that status.
Fascinating how many pre-season predictions had Ank gone at the end of the season, and now he's back in the Cards' wheelhouse after a down year.
Not convinced Mo would offer arbi to Pineiro, but either way, he's likely to get a silly multi-year deal from someone (hopefully not the Cards).
From Mo's perspective, I would think offering Pineiro arbitration would make sense. He's likely not to take it, especially, like you said, if he can maintain his numbers the rest of the season. Someone will be willing to sign him to a multi-year deal. That gives us a free draft pick with no real loss.
Ankiel is the trickiest of the bunch. Sign him or let him walk, does arbitration make the most sense for him? It's so hard to gauge his situation.
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