Don't Call It a Comeback

Monday, August 24, 2009 |

It's been John Smoltz week over here, and we're not about to stop now. Dissecting the first start from the ex-Bostonian, ex-Atlantan, but definitely not ex-Good Pitcher.

If only for one start, John showed us what it's like to have a capable pitcher pitching at the back-end of the rotation. My initial observations showed - forgive the cliche - a pitcher who truly knows how to pitch (at this point I just spilled yogurt on my keyboard. yep, i'm a college kid), and not in the way Al Hrabosky might bandy about pitcher X because he throws more than a fastball. Smoltz still has incredible movement on his pitches; he knows how to make his pitches do what he wants, a trait that the entire 5th rotation spot has been unable to do, for the most part, this entire year.

Visual observations will also show just how much Smoltz is at ease on the pitcher's mound, despite the recent struggles and exile from Boston. There were times when I wondered if he was hurt just because of how effortless his delivery was, as if he wasn't even trying. I remember in the first inning mumbling under my breath, "Crap, him too?" Yeah, him too ended up absolutely cruising through 5 innings of 3-hit ball, no walks issued and facing only 3 over the minimum.

Smoltz has a chip on his shoulder, and he's the kind of guy you want to have playing on your side when that happens. I swear he could have been part of a Dr. Pepper commercial when he said this, courtesy of Matt Leach and STLCardinals.com:

"I still believe I've got the intensity and the experience to pitch in big games... that's what this team and this franchise have been about, and I think you're going to be pleasantly surprised, or I wouldn't be here today."
"... Trust me, I'm a doctor."

The numbers certainly show a pitcher who still has gas in the tank. 9 strikeouts, regardless of who you're playing, in 5 innings is ace-worthy, and he did that without walking any batters in between. Let's dig a little deeper into the numbers of his first start, with the huge disclaimer of sample size flashing in bright lights.

44.4% of balls hit in play went for groundouts, a little less than two percentage points below his career average. No line drives were recorded as being hit, and his infield fly ball rate was 20%, compared to an 8.3% career IFFB%.

In one start alone with the Cardinals, Smoltz has a 0.4 WAR and is worth $1.8 million dollars. Yes, you read that right. He's worth $1.8 million based on his one start alone.

Some more numbers from the first start, while we're on a roll: his xFIP is currently 0.98 with St. Louis, his WHIP is 0.60, and his SLG-allowed is .222. And, of course, the all-important ERA is Zero Point Zero Zero.

John Smoltz showed us yesterday why we might be "pleasantly surprised" by his return to the National League. John, I'm sorry to say, it isn't really a surprise after all.

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