Thursday, June 18, 2009

Rasmus Likes to Run

Colby Rasmus is on fire in the month of June, but the question remains: will Colby draw a walk this month?

Let's put the odds that Colby takes a walk in the month of June at 4:1, to throw a random, arbitrary number out there. If he can make it the whole month without walking and still have a June OPS over 1.000, I'll devote an entire post to how freakin' cool Colby Rasmus is. Raz, the ball's in your court.

We all know that Colby is "the slow starter"; ever since his rise to blue-chip prospect status, we've started each season looking for the Raz to set the world on fire, only to see him slowly crawl along the first month or so with pedestrian stats. Last year in Memphis, it seemed like he was never able to truly get in his comfort zone, and, for a streaky hitter like Colby, not finding your comfort zone means lots of 0-4 nights.

Nothing's changed this year, as Colby started his first season in the majors a tad below expectations, if our expectations were what he's truly capable of producing: .254/.357/.305 in April and .212/.250/.447 in May. This month, halfway through, Colby has finally turned on the gas and hasn't looked back, batting .396/.396/.708 in 48 at-bats, including a 31% line drive ratio. In comparison, Albert Pujols, who has been on his own recent tear of hitting, is batting .273/.379/.745 in 55 June at-bats.

To put up those kind of numbers without taking a walk is near insane. Then again, why would you walk when the ball is magnetically attracted to your bat?

I don't think it's been communicated enough how big of a boost Colby's hot streak has been to the offense. Fangraphs has Colby's true value worth $9.7 million so far this year, compared to the several hundred thousand he's making as a rookie. If Colby can learn to start taking more walks while still making the solid contact he's been capable of this month, that dollar amount will rise even more. That's called running your way to a big payday.

2 comments:

  1. Not to mention his defense. Colby's put up ridiculous (if unsustainable) UZR numbers so far. There's no doubt, at least until Ludwick heats up, that Ramsus is the most valuable outfielder on the team.

    His plate discipline was always great in the minors, I wouldn't read too much into the lack of walks during a hot streak like this. The walks will probably pile up as pitchers begin to fear his pop a little more.
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  2. Colby has definitely played consistently stellar defense this year. There are times when he's loafed a bit, but he'll learn as he continues to spend time in that clubhouse with TLR and Albert around.

    I'm confident Colby will start to walk closer to his minor league rates, but it's pretty crazy to think he's putting up the numbers he is without walking at least once.

    Thanks for the comment.
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