Matt Cain Could Be Available

The Giants may be shopping righthanded starter Matt Cain for the right price.

I'm always careful to take trade rumors with a grain of salt, but MLB Trade Rumors has come out with a doozy that is worth a post. Matt Cain, who is no stranger to trade rumors in June and July, is supposedly on the block, making for potentially one of the biggest acquisitions of the season for a team in the pennant race.

Cain, 24, has a career 3.63 ERA and 3.93 FIP, an ERA-like stat that is a more objective look at how well the pitcher pitched regardless of defense, but he also has a low groundball ratio - 35.7% - and a pretty high walk ratio - 3.79 BBs per nine innings. This season, Matt has been a mixed bag of positive and negative stats: his ERA is really good (2.40), his FIP is ok (4.33), his K/9 is lower than normal (6.15), and his K/BB ratio is sub-par (1.64 strikeouts per walk). Another red flag is a decline in velocity this season - his fastball normally approaches 93 mph on the speed gun, but it's only been at 91.6 mph in '09.

Do these numbers forecast a breakdown of any sort from his recent success? Not really, but they do put his basic stats, like ERA and W-L, in some perspective. David Golebiewski of Fangraphs thinks Cain's due for some regression, so it would make sense that the Giants are considering trading him while his perceived value is probably above his true value right now.

That's enough numbers bandied about right and left; I'm not going to claim to be a stat guru with my SPSS spreadsheet by my side. The main points to be gathered are: a.) Matt Cain is a good pitcher; b.) Matt Cain would be an improvement over 3/5ths of our starting rotation; c.) Matt Cain is cheap ($2.65 million in '09, $4.25 million in '10, and an option in '11); and d.) Matt Cain wouldn't come here for cheap.

Point d.) is the most important factor in this equation, and a reason the Cards will probably not be in any bidding unless there's a big setback in the rotation, which, unfortunately, is a very real possibility. For now, the greatest trade options for our current club would be on the left side of the infield. I'm looking at you, Cleveland Indians.