UCB Roundtable Question 2

The United Cardinals Bloggers (UCB) have teamed up again for a roundtable session. My question for the group was simple but yielded some good responses: Who should be the Cardinals number one target this off-season and why? I'm a little late in posting this one, but it's been a busy week for this college student and my question had a lot of discussion. Those participating in this discussion include:

C70 at the Bat
Cardinal Nation Globe
The Cardinal Virtue
Fungoes
Mike on the Cards
Pitchers Hit Eighth
The Riverfront Times
Redbirds Fun
BertFlex
Redbird Ramblings
The Redbird Blog
Stan Musial's Stance

See the transcript after the jump.

C70 at the Bat: It's probably not reasonable nor particularly likely, but I'd love to see the Cardinals make a run at Roy Halladay.

He's a durable guy that takes on a lot of innings, easing the burden on the bullpen. He's been very successful in one of the toughest divisions of the American League, so that success should increase in the National League. He has two years left on his deal ($14.25 million and $15.75 million) which is reasonable for what he's giving you.

While it seems to be one of those unsubstantiated rumors, there was talk that Halladay wanted out of Toronto. That'd be the only way they'd move him, especially if Burnett goes somewhere else. But to have him fill that open slot in the rotation would be amazing. Even without a return of Carpenter, a rotation of Halladay, Wainwright, Lohse, Pineiro, X would probably do some good things in the regular season and be even more dominant in October. If Carpenter returned to form.....

I have no idea what kind of talent Toronto would want or whether they'd be hesitant to deal with St. Louis again after the Glaus/Rolen bit. But if they could get solid young talent, say (just off the top of the head), Ankiel, Craig and Todd, wouldn't they have to think about it?

Pitchers Hit Eighth: The Cards’ first and foremost target should be Brian Fuentes. Ken Rosenthal said yesterday in an article he expects Fuentes to seek 3 years, around $37.5M. This is a steep price no doubt, but would also be an acquisition that would really fortify the bullpen in a couple of ways.

Fuentes represents the left-handed out pitcher that the Cardinals seemingly lacked all of 2008. He would be a situational dream for Tony LaRussa, able to pitch in many different situations to many different batters. You need a couple of key outs in the eighth inning against left-handed hitters? Fuentes is your guy for that, Perez closes. Perez has pitched back-to-back days and/or you want to get him a day of rest? Fuentes closes. In either case, a Fuentes signing (seemingly, at least in a rational brain) prevents any chance of Isringhausen or Franklin winding up in the closer role again.

$10m per for a guy who won’t be a full-time closer? Is it worth it? If you ask me, yes. Adding Fuentes would bump everyone else in the pen back into their intended roles. Franklin in mid-relief/setup (probably some combo of him and Fuentes/Perez in the 8th), McClellan (please don’t move him to the rotation) in mid-relief, and specialists from there out. I could really get behind that bullpen setup, and I think just the addition of one arm in Fuentes could instantly turn what was a debacle in 2008 into a team strength again in 2009.

One final note, I advocate this move partially because I think the Cards have to take a similar approach to the bullpen as I hope they will take with the starting rotation. You can’t count on injured pitchers coming back. Sure, Josh Kinney was strong in September, but will his arm hold up for more than nine or ten innings? We still don’t know what Tyler Johnson will be able to contribute, if anything. And in the end, if they wind up having too many bullpen arms, they’ll just convert one to starter again (just not McClellan, ok?).

The Riverfront Times: Good question.

I would looove to see the Cards go after Roy Halladay, as Daniel suggests, if he could be had, but I really don't think that's too very likely. You would have to just absolutel blow Toronto away with your offer, to the point of it being a really one sided deal, I would think, for it to actually make sense for the Blue Jays. Still, a man can dream...

But if asked to come up with a legitimate answer that I think has a chance of getting done, I would go with Rafael Furcal.

Furcal is an excellent defensive shortstop, has a great bat at the top of a lineup, and has the kind of speed the Cards haven't been able to field in many a year. His injury this year pushed him down the FA category, so signing him wouldn't cost you a draft pick. He isn't blocking any prospects, as both Kozma and Niko Vasquez are still a few years away. And since he's a free agent, you don't have to go dealing away your emerging talent for him.

Give him a three year deal, pencil him into the lineup in the leadoff slot, and watch the Ws come rolling in. I think it's really a no brainer. It isn't often you get the opportunity to upgrade this many facets of your team at once.

Redbird Ramblings: so, the cards have about 30 million dollars in spending money. who I would like to see the cards spend most of their money on is a dominent starter like c.c. or burnett. realistically, the cardinals have never signed an ace pitcher from free agency; they either pick people up off of the scrap heap or trade for one and then give him an extension.

so, let's go another route. let's patch up the middle infield...we need some offense. I say bring back lopez and give him a shot to be your starting 2nd baseman. he would be relatively cheap right? he is not great defensively but I don't think he is a liability at 2nd. now, let's get a SS. I've always really liked this guy and thought he had a strong arm and great range = he can play a very good shortstop. that guy is orlando hudson. the man can flat out hit too...he can be the leadoff hitter that the cardinals desperately need. the man has hit for an average of at least .280 since he left the blue jays (his career average is .282) and his career obp is .346 and the last couple of years its hoovering around .370. that's good enough to be a lead off hitter right? he is also a switch hittter...this aspect of him tony will love; he can be in the lineup everyday. the man is only 31 also. so, I you could give him a 3 to 4 year deal at 8-10 million a year; that sounds pretty good to me. if at the end lopez does not work out at 2nd, you could just put orlando back at 2nd and you would not have a problem. oh, and he is a gold glover if I remember correctly.

Cardinal Nation Globe: I really don't see the Cards putting a lot of money out there for free agent pitchers but C70's comment definitely has me thinking about a Halladay trade scenerio.

I know this wouldn't be a blockbuster deal by any measure but I've been a fan of the Pirates' middle infield: Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez. How about acquiring one or both of them?
Wilson certainly isn't a big bat but he is still one of the best defensive shortstops out there. Sanchez has had some injury issues and batted only .271 this past year, but he's a .300+ hitter and a surgeon with the bat - especially hitting the ball to the opposite field.

Redbird Ramblings: scott, I really don't think that the pirates would trade anyone within the division, especially to the cardinals. I would not mind having freddy as the cards everyday 2nd baseman, but I just don't see that happening. actually, it could happen, but the pirates would basically fleece the cards system for those two middle infielders.

Pitchers Hit Eighth: Haedar probably has a good point here – it wouldn’t make any sense for the Pirates to trade either one of those guys in-division, especially since they’d probably be selling low on both. Sanchez is bound to return to form when fully healthy, so they probably aren’t real keen to trade him after his worst season to date.

Wilson I could see them moving, albeit again selling low because of his injury-shortened 2008, if for no reason than to save money.

In-division trades are just real hard to come by these days.

If it weren’t such a matter of rivalry within the division, I’d be happy to see the Cards pursue Ryan Theriot. For some reason, Cubs fans and management have never been sold on the guy - but to me he represents decent if unspectacular defense, and a high OBP at a premium infield position – I’d love to have a guy like Theriot in the leadoff spot.

Fungoes: I'm not sure that the Pirates are all that concerned with intra-division trades, inasmuch as they're not really competing against division rivals so much as against other entertainment options in the greater Pittsburgh area. At any rate, I'm not sure why the Cardinals would be interested in either one of those Pirate middle infielders, since they could easily re-sign essentially the same (or better) combo in Cesar Izturis (great glove, no bat) and Aaron Miles (decent glove, decent bat). As for Theriot, he did an excellent job of getting on-base ahead of the Cubs' big hitters, so he could presumably do so in a Cardinal lineup. But why would the Cubs trade him?

Pitchers Hit Eighth: I agree Pip – I wouldn’t trade him if I were Hendry – but they flirted with Furcal in the past and other options as recently as last season, so are we sure they’re content with Theriot now?

My premise is based completely on the idea that for some reason the Cubs don’t view Theriot as a long-term, full-time solution at shortstop. If that were the case and they’d trade him, I’d certainly try to be first in line.

Fungoes: Well, you raise a good point about Hendry, who has been known to make some questionable deals (e.g., trading away Dontrelle Willis, Ricky Nolasco; acquiring Jeromy Burnitz, Juan Pierre), though to be fair, he's also made some good ones (Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee). He's been getting more lucky than good lately, and the club he has now assembled is undoubtedly strong but with a lot of backloaded money due in a few years to players who won't be improving (Lee, Ramirez, Zambrano, Soriano).

Redbirds Fun: I would love to see us go after Halladay but he's like a Blue Jay for life. Having Carp already with the Cards could be a positive with regards to wooing Halladay here.

C70 at the Bat: Re: Wilson/Sanchez. If the former administration of the Pirates was still intact, there wouldn't be any reason to think they wouldn't go in division with deals. Most of us still remember the way that they basically gave Kenny Lofton and Aramis Ramirez to the Cubs in 2003.

I'm with Pip, though, in that neither of them, in my mind, are that much different than what we already have. Wilson's done more with his career than I expected, but I think in places other than Pittsburgh he'd probably have been relegated to the bench by now.

The Cardinal Virtue: I too would like to see some help with the middle infield. I'm sick of not having a strong SS or 2B. Wishful thinking on my part includes B. Giles. But I have a feeling that that would eat up too much $ and would hamper our chances of landing another solid pitcher. I've talked about Brad Penny. Economics says that he is just the guy at just the right price for Duncan. I still wouldn't mind seeing Bonds get scooped up either--I still want more protection for Pujols as I wonder how much Luds and co. can reduplicate this year's success.

The Redbird Blog: If I were the guy who controlled the STL pocketbook, my top two priorities are a productive middle infield bat and starting pitching. Sure, I understand the bullpen needs work, but the Tampa Bay Rays have proven that you can dramatically improve a bullpen (they went from worst in the AL to 2nd-best in the AL in just one year) without overspending on big name pitchers. So I think the Cardinals can address their bullpen needs without spending $35-$40 million on Fuentes.

So, to that end, I would target Brian Roberts (via trade) to fill the middle infield role. My guess is the Cardinals will take a shot at re-signing Felipe Lopez and we're probably in for another season of Aaron Miles. But if we can add Roberts, I think that he brings a great combination of speed and "pop" to the #2 hole in the lineup. I know some folks are advocating for Rafael Furcal. I'm not sold. This is a guy who has managed just one full season of baseball with an OPS of +800, and I just don't think he's worth the money he will command in free agency.

On the starting pitching side, I'm not willing to accept that Carpenter will be a healthy contributor in 2009. If he is, I'd consider it a bonus. I think the Cardinals would be wise to enter 2009 assuming that he will not be available. I don't think the Cardinals would be wise to overspend on the likes of Sabathia, but I would like to see them look into a trade for Jake Peavy or Edwin Jackson of the Rays (Buster Olney reports that both may be available). Jackson has impressive stuff, and he won't command near the return that Peavy is sure to bring. Both would be under club control for at least 2-3 more years. If the Cardinals are unable to swing a trade for a quality starter, I think they need to take a strong look at Derek Lowe and Oliver Perez in free agency.

Redbird Ramblings: what really needs fixing or figuring out is the bullpen. they better use perez as closer next season or else next season might be another lost cause. it all starts with starting pitching though; everything else takes a backseat to starting pitching because it can make or break the team's playoff hopes in june or even may.

Pitchers Hit Eighth: Agreed – and there are many illustrations of the importance of pitching from the 2008 season.

1. Bullpen, not really much else to say here.
2. How would things have been different with a healthy Wainwright all season?
3. How would things have been different had Carpenter’s shoulder not balked? He was fairly nasty in the couple of starts he made prior to the shoulder giving way.

And really, items 2 and 3 may well have been enough to squeeze the Cardinals into the playoffs regardless of item 1.

Fungoes: I concur with haedar's suggestion of signing Orlando Hudson (I dropped his name at our midseason UCB roundtable), who would be an upgrade in every way from the one-dimensional Felipe Lopez at second (sadly, though, O-Dog having never played SS, won't be an option there). Otherwise, here are a few principles that seem to go against some of the other suggestions so far:

- Trade as much corner outfield talent as possible.
- Avoid FA starting pitchers (if you thought that the Lohse deal was bad...).
- Avoid FA relief pitchers. (If you have any doubt that "brand-name" closers aren't overrated, look at the most effective relievers on this year's playoff teams.)

Mike on the Cards: There are so many needs this off-season for the Cardinals, which makes this a very tough question. Here's my opinion: The offense wasn't the problem in 2008. The problem was pitching. With that, it's hard to distinguish where to place the brunt of the blame, the rotation or the bullpen. In my opinion, some things will fix themselves, but if there is an area that can't be remedied within house, it's gotta be the rotation.

That said. I could live with another year of Izturis at short, unproven players in the outfield, and youngsters in the pen, if the Cards were able to shore up the rotation with another proven commodity.

There aren't many names that jump out at me, at least names that are within the team's payroll. But if I had to choose somebody to both answer the question and fill the team's needs, it'd be Matt Cain.

A trade for Cain (or someone of his caliber) certainly wouldn't come cheap, but there isn't much that would benefit the club more.

Stan Musial's Stance: I think the sentiments expressed in this thread are correct - we need left handed bullpen help and a bigger bat in the middle infield. I count 4 big bats in our lineup for next year - Glaus, Pujols, Ankiel, and Ludwick. We also have a good contact hitter in Molina, and a leadoff hitter in Schumaker or Barton playing LF. Personally I'd like to keep Izturis - he had the third best fielding percentage in the NL, and the best range factor. I'll carry a weak bat to maintain the tight defense. That leaves 2B. I'll agree with the call for Orlando Hudson, even though he's been injury prone the last 2 years. The other 2B free agent I'd look at is Tadahito Iguchi, who's out of a job in SD.

Here's a 2B trade thought for you: Offer one of our surplus outfielders as the centerpiece of a tradw with the White Sox for Alexi Ramirez. He's young and has pop.

If we don't go with a second baseman, then LH relief is definitely the way. Right handed, we set up pretty well with McClellan, Franklin, Thompson, Kinney, and Perez. I'm not sold on Fuentes, especially at $37M for 3 years. $12M a year for a guy who's only thrown more than 75 innings in a season once (and that by 1/3 of an inning)? Too much for me. www.mlb4u.com has a list of 2008 free agents; two names jumped out at me as possibles, Joe Beimel and Damaso Marte. Ray King is also on the list for those interested in walking down memory lane....

The Cardinal Virtue: Pip is right. If we don't trade out of the surplus that is our corner outfield, we will regret it for years.

BertFlex: I've seen a lot of interesting trade possibilities mentioned, including J.J. Hardy, Brian Roberts, and even a young pitcher like Zack Greinke. As always, this would depend on the cost involved. I think the main idea, though, is to improve the middle infield to something resembling respectability without losing someone like Rasmus. If we aren't going to use Bryan Anderson anytime soon -- it doesn't look like we will with Yadi signed through '11 -- I think he's one of our better chips as a good-hitting catcher. We definitely have outfielders to spare, too.

As far as free agents, I've already stated my desire to see us nab C.C. Sabathia. More realistically, I'd want us to take a look at Oliver Perez or maybe a short-term/high-dollar deal for A.J. Burnett or even Ben Sheets.

If we sign [Insert "Proven Closer" Here], I'm going to be severely pissed off. Between Franklin, Motte, and Perez, we should be able to fill the ninth inning role on the cheap and spend those dollars elsewhere.

Cardinal Nation Globe: I really like the idea of Oliver Perez (I forget who originally brought it up). He has great stuff and is still relatively young. Perez's biggest problem is his mechanics and most of that seems to be under control since he left Pittsburgh but I'm sure Dave Duncan will be able to help too.

I would also love the see the Cards make a deal with Kansas City for Greinke, however, the Royals will probably want too much for him - it would have to be a "can't miss" deal for Royals' GM Dayton Moore in order for him to go through with it.

Pitchers Hit Eighth: Agreed that Greinke will be too expensive. I’ve read some places that it would take at least a Bedard-type of deal in order to get him, and that just doesn’t seem to fit the Cards’ organizational philosophy right now.

Do you think we could get Oliver Perez on a 2-year, $8m per deal? I’d be very pleased to add him at that price, but I expect lots of other teams would as well. Also keep in mind that Perez is projected to qualify as a type-A free agent, and I’m sure the Mets will offer arbitration if for no other reason than to get the picks. The Cardinals’ first rounder is not protected in the next draft.

My Take: We had a lot of good discussion in this segment of the UCB roundtable, with plenty of good ideas ranging from Roy Halladay to Rafael Furcal to Zack Greinke. We all have our own interpretations of what the Cardinals should do this off-season based on how we perceive the teams strengths and weaknesses, but the main points of influence in this discussion were starting pitching and middle infield, two areas of need for the club. In addition, we have some bullpen instability and a serious need for one or more lefthanded relievers.

Oliver Perez is an interesting name brought up in this discussion, and he's a guy we have talked about before in his Pirates playing days. If you recall, he had a 2.98 ERA in 2004 only to have a terrible 2005 in Pittsburgh. His time in New York has been much better, although he has some faults. He has a lifetime 4.76 BB/9, a 1.31 HR/9, and a 0.70 GB/FB ratio, three rate stats that aren't good indicators of long-term success. He doesn't seem like a prime Dave Duncan project, as his top quality really seems to be his ability to strike guys out, which he did 180 times this year for a 8.35 K/9 ratio. The jury's still out on Oliver, but I could see him asking for $8-9m on the open market a year.

Thanks to all the bloggers for participating in another insightful discussion.