Braden Looper is a pending free agent this off-season and, according to Tigers blogger Eddie Bajek, will be a Type B free agent after the Elias rankings are finalized. This is good news, as a Type B designation means that we'll receive a supplemental draft pick at the end of the first round - a sandwich pick - if we offer Braden arbitration and he decides to sign elsewhere. Of the Cardinals' other free agents, only Jason Isringhausen is predicted to be a Type A or B free agent, with Izzy carrying the Type B designation.

The bad news with the Kyle Lohse signing, all other criticisms aside, is that we lost out on the opportunity for an additional two draft picks in the first or second round. John Mozeliak and Jeff Luhnow must feel comfortable enough with their current crop of farmhands to let that opportunity pass by. It's still an opportunity cost, and we'll have to see which option will pay the biggest benefit in the next four years.

There is an opportunity cost in play when considering what we should do with Braden Looper. If they offer him arbitration, he could either accept or decline the offer. Since the Cardinals already have a spot open for another starter, Looper's accepted arbitration award wouldn't be that big of a deal. We would have another starter who's durable and has seen his K/9, K/BB, LOB%, and GB/FB all increase in his second year of starting. If he declines, we get another draft pick and a chance to sign a pitcher on the free agent market. We still win.

The real issue is the possibility of signing Braden Looper to a multi-year deal, such as our deals with Joel Pineiro and Kyle Lohse. It's a sign of loyalty when you re-sign a pitcher for multiple years, but we have to consider the opportunity costs down the road before entrusting such loyalty on a former Cardinal farmhand. In 2009, Braden will be 34 years old; he'll still be fresh given the amount of innings on his arm, but we might start to see him struggle more than this past year. He'll still have value as an innings-eater and a solid #4 starter, and the cost of having Braden over one of our younger starters is negligible, given the degree of readiness of Mitch Boggs or Jess Todd and the injury to Jaime Garcia.

The real cost comes in 2010 and beyond, when Braden will be reaching the age when pitchers start to break down and hanging curveballs become more common. Having Braden signed past 2009 is a potential liability to the rotation, but, more importantly, it potentially takes away a spot from one of our developing pitchers in Memphis and Springfield. For the same argument as to why we shouldn't have given Lohse a fourth year on his contract, Looper could potentially be blocking another pitcher while making a high salary. Not to mention the fact that the 2010 free agent class is stacked with high-profile pitchers, guys that could improve the club dramatically such as Justin Duchscherer, Erik Bedard, Brad Penny, and Rich Harden. Tying up $8+ million down for 2010 hampers our ability to pursue those guys or promote from within. It's not efficient nor is it beneficial to our younger guys.

Braden Looper did an admirable job filling the number three starter role this season, but the Cardinals should realize where the real opportunity costs lie in re-signing Braden to a multi-year deal. Give him arbitration now, and, if he accepts, welcome him back with open arms in Jupiter. You can always offer him another contract after the '09 season if need be. If he declines the offer, move on and find the next target for the rotation. We've seen too many mutli-year deals in this rotation, with too little to show for them. Let's not make that mistake this time around.