Taking a look at Dennys Reyes

In my post, "Lefty relievers on the free agent market," a commenter brought up a valid point that I think is worth mentioning:

Why not Dennys Reyes from the Twins. I don't see them resigning him cause the Twins have other lefty options and he's still solid against lefties and would come cheaper then those other guys.

Our commenter must have been ahead of the curve, because it was days before this was posted at MLB Trade Rumors:

Another left-handed relief option that hasn't garnered much attention is the Twins' Dennys Reyes. Reyes is a free agent after the 2008 season, and credits the Twins for his turnaround over the past three seasons. He'd like to remain with the club, but because of new left-handed options like Craig Breslow and emerging prospect Jose Mijares, Reyes may have become expendable.

Dennys Reyes, who's 31-years-old, makes sense for the Cardinals for several reasons: first, he isn't due to make particularly much this off-season, but the Twins might still not have the resources to keep him; second, his ground ball/fly ball ratio (2.62 is outstanding); and third, the Cardinals desperately need a good lefty reliever.


Reyes comes from an up-and-down career spanning nine organizations, six of which were in the National League. It's safe to say the Dennys didn't become a valuable commodity until his time with the Twins, starting in 2006. In that year, Dennys had a 0.89 ERA in 50.2 IP, including a 2.87 FIP, 8.7 K/9, and 2.66 BB/9. In 2007 with the Twins, Dennys' ERA bounced back up to 3.99 in 29.1 IP with a FIP of 4.60. That season was a forgettable one for Dennys, as he missed a large part of the season due to problems with his rotator cuff and eventually sat out the last 37 games due to left elbow inflammation.

2008 has been much more kind to Dennys, as he's been able to put in a full season's work pitching primarily in the lefty specialist role. He's held lefties to a .531 OPS in 91 AB, which is right in line with his three-year totals (.539 OPS). In 45.0 IP, he has a 2.40 ERA, 3.69 FIP, 7.40 H/9, and a 2.80 BB/9, in addition to his stellar ground ball skills. Another good but fluky number is his 87% LOB%, which is 15.5 percentage points above his 71.5% career LOB%.

While the signs are generally good with Reyes, there's still a few question marks surrounding him. First, why has his career fluctuated so greatly from year to year? I looked for an every-other-year pattern a la Reggie Sanders, but no such characteristic emerged. Perhaps the journeyman status of his career until 2006 affected his play, and settling into a role with the Twins helped his stability. I don't know.

Second, Dennys' 4.96 career BB/9 scares me, along with a career 1.64 K/BB ratio. His career has been nothing short of sporadic, with his K/9 jumping from a 8.83 one year to 6.42 the next. Reyes' BB/9 has settled down over the past couple years, but anyone with a reputation for walking that many guys is a red flag, especially for the bullpen.

Third, he had quite a bit of injury trouble in 2007, and no one knows how his arm is going to hold up after a full season of pitching. I don't think it should be a huge concern, but it's worth checking up on. God knows the last thing we need is another busted pitcher.

After making $1 million the past two years, Dennys is due a pay raise, but he's not going to make so much that he shouldn't be on the Cardinals' wish list. I think he's a good option for adding some wins to the team without shelving a huge portion of the payroll, and I'd definitely rate him as a "buy," along with Jeremy Affeldt and Will Ohman. Perhaps we could snag two of the three for under $6 million total in 2009. I think it's very possible.

What do you think? Should Dennys Reyes be a Cardinals target this off-season?