Lefty relievers on the free agent market
The Cardinals definitely need to sign another lefthanded reliever this off-season. Ron Villone, signed this past year, was a good thought but is nothing more than a LOOGY at this point, sporting an ERA of 4.88 and a FIP of 4.61. Against lefties, he's holding batters to a .185/.311/.333; against righties, that line jumps to .306/.429/.449, and he's faced righthanded hitters more than lefties this season.
We also have Randy Flores, but his numbers are even worse: .971 OPS against lefties, .804 OPS against righties, and an overall FIP of 5.25. Then there's Tyler Johnson, who's value to the team can only be labeled as "undetermined" going into next season. In the minor leagues, the situation doesn't get better, with Jaime Garcia and Ron Flores as our top lefty options in Memphis and Brad Furnish and Justin Fiske as our top options in Springfield. Something needs to be done this off-season, and the Cards have the money to do it.
The top lefty relievers on the free agent market are a lot of the guys we tossed around in trade rumors, so everyone should be at least a little familiar with them.
At a Glance: 57.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 3.14 FIP, 8.37 K/9, 3.47 BB/9, 0.47 HR/9, .579 OPS vs. lefties
Summary: The man everyone thought was going to be a Cardinal just might become a Cardinal at the end of the season. According to the projected Elias rankings, Ohman isn't going to be a Type A free agent, so there's no risk to signing him other than the contract. That said, the Braves are going to try hard to keep him after refusing to trade him at the trade deadline. He made $1.6m in 2008, and, at 31 years old, he'll top that this off-season.
At a Glance: 73.0 IP, 3.58 ERA, 3.68 FIP, 9.25 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, 1.11 HR/9, .733 OPS vs. lefties
Summary: Affeldt is in the lesser tier of free agent relievers, but he seems to be the kind of player that could fit in well with the Cardinals. He once was a promising starting pitcher with the Royals, but his role changed to the bullpen for good in 2007. He has a great K/9 rate, and his 1.95 GB/FB ratio is 16th best among all relievers with at least 60 innings pitched. For comparison, Kyle McClellan is the highest Cardinal on that list with a 1.58 GB/FB ratio. At 29 years old, Jeremy still has some peak years left in him, which suggests he's still capable of turning in seasons like 2008. The projected Elias rankings have him as a Type B free agent.
At a Glance: 58.2 IP, 2.45 ERA, 1.78 FIP, 11.35 K/9, 2.91 BB/9, 0.15 HR/9, .363 OPS vs. lefties
Summary: There's no doubt why Brian was the most sought-after reliever at the trade deadline - his numbers look magnanimous. The Cardinals have a very very very slim shot at Fuentes this off-season, as you can bet the Yankees and Red Sox will be in on him. Plus, Brian wants to close, and the Cards are seemingly set with Chris Perez as the closer. Fuentes will also be a Type A free agent, meaning that we have to give up our first round pick to sign him. The price is too high, and there are too many other good options available for Fuentes to be a real possibility.
At a Glance: 44.1 IP, 2.23 ERA, 3.45 FIP, 5.48 K/9, 4.06 BB/9, 0.00 HR/9, .692 OPS vs. lefties
Summary: Joe is a new name thrown into the hat, and his numbers are pretty weak when compared to the rest of the group. His K/BB ratio (1.35) is horrendous, and his 1.39 GB/FB ratio is pretty weak, too. As a Type B free agent due to make more than his $1.925m salary in 2008, I'd advise the Cardinals to stay away unless the other options don't work out.
At a Glance: 63.1 IP, 3.98 ERA, 3.17 FIP, 10.09 K/9, 3.55 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, .661 OPS vs. lefties
Summary: Damaso was one of my favorite options at the trade deadline, but his trade to the Yankees could mean that he's in New York for another season. There are two things working against the Cardinals in Marte's case: first, he has a $6m 2009 option that the Yankees may very well exercise; second, he'll be a Type A free agent if New York declines the option but offers him arbitration. Is he worth a first round pick? I'm not so sure.
Beyond those 5, which should be considered the top five lefty relievers, we also have the lowest tier of free agent lefties. Trever Miller, Arthur Rhodes, Horacio Ramirez, Alan Embree, and Eddie Guardado are all iffys to make a significant impact on the 2009 team. Of the group, only Alan Embree is projected to be a Type B free agent. We're getting into Ron Villone territory here.
Of all the options available, Will Ohman or Jeremy Affeldt would be the wisest free agent choices to add to the bullpen. Specifically, Affeldt has the peripherals to really have potential under the tutelage of Dave Duncan. Neither will exceed $4m a year, and neither require giving up a draft pick. What do you think? Is there anyone I left out?
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1 comments:
Why not Dennys Reyes from the Twins. I don't see them resigning him cause the Twins have other lefty options and he's still solid against lefties and would come cheaper then those other guys.
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