Today is a day I've been waiting for since last week. Chris Carpenter goes again tonight, in the next chapter of his returning-from-surgery saga. Technically, this is the equivalent of a fourth rehab start for Carpenter, who jumped to the big leagues after making just two rehab starts in the minors. I'm expecting a sharper Chris than we saw in his first start, but we also should expect some bumps along the road as he continues to feel around for his perfect arm slot and delivery. I think seeing a healthy Carp on the mound for his second start can have an even bigger impact on the team than seeing him make his first start. Tonight, the Cards are going to see their bulldog out on the mound in his normal turn in the rotation. He's finally ready to go day-in, day-out with this team; he's finally a contributor.

When Carpenter first came back, many (I included) heralded the comeback as equal to acquiring CC Sabathia or Rich Harden. Using PRAR (Pitcher-only Runs Above Replacement, defined here), it's easy to see how adding Carp is benefiting the Cards. Before Carp was added to the rotation, we were using a number of different pitchers, with Mitch Boggs starting the most out of the 5th rotation slot. In his 6 starts, Boggs posted a -5 PRAR, meaning he was playing 5 runs below replacement value for pitchers. Even though I like Boggs and think he has a bright future ahead of him, that's pretty bad. Compare that to Chris Carpenter's first three years with the Cardinals, and you can see Carp's value to this team (58 PRAR in '04, 93 in '05, 84 in '06).

Then there's WPA (Win Probability Added, defined here), that measures how well the player positively (or negatively) affects a given play, accumulated over the course of the season. Carpenter's WPA after one start is 0.08, and his first three years he posted WPA's of 2.04 in '04, 4.48 in '05, and 2.90 in '06. Boggs, in contrast, had a WPA of -0.25 in his time with the big club. That means, overall, the team did worse by having him in the game. Significantly worse. Joel Pineiro, sadly, has a negative -1.50 WPA this season. We know who needs to go when Adam Wainwright returns.

CC Sabathia has a 1.50 WPA with the Brewers, while Rich Harden has a 0.85 WPA with the Cubs. Carpenter is going to need to string together quite a few quality starts to match those numbers, but he certainly is capable of doing so. When factoring in Carp's ability to match his previous Cy Young performance, you have to consider if he has comparable stuff to his past years. So far, all looks good. Carp matched or exceeded his previous years' velocity in his first start - 91.6 mph fastball, 87.2 mph slider, 73.3 mph curveball, and 83.8 mph changeup. If there's one area where Carp is lacking, it's his ability to command his curve. He threw it only 13.4% of the time in his first game back, compared to throwing it around 22% of the time when he was healthy. He only had a few sharp curveballs against Atlanta, but, again, you couldn't expect him to fully control all of his pitches in what was his third rehab start. Overall, from the looks of it, Carp's got a good chance to regain his old self.

The Cards need a healthy Chris Carpenter to propel them into the playoffs. Carp's got a chance to start 6 times this month. Here's hoping we get 6 good ones.

Chris Carpenter FanGraphs

Chris Carpenter Baseball Prospectus

Other tidbits:

• Good news from Chris Duncan. The surgery was a successful one, with the total rehab time expected to be 3-4 months. Duncan just didn't look right this season; hopefully, he can spend some more time with Big Mac and work the kinks out of his swing this off-season.
• Tony La Russa plans to start playing his best players every day, with the prospect of a 4-man rotation being tossed around as well. If we want our best players, why not demote Brendan Ryan and promote Jarrett Hoffpauir from Memphis?
• It's been a year since Barry Bonds tied Hank Aaron with 755 career home runs. He's still available, if we wanted him.
• Allen Craig hit his 20th home run for Double-A Springfield yesterday. When did third baseman become a strength at every single level of the system? Ironically, when Scott Rolen left.
• I ordered the first Rockin' the Red t-shirt yesterday. They'll be available for purchase as soon as I can approve the make and quality of the shirt. I don't want to be selling anyone a crumby product!