Thursday, August 28, 2008

We need to talk

OK, we get it. The Cards, despite the injuries, the hard luck, the baffling roster moves, and the seemingly uncatchable Brewers ahead of them, aren't willing to give up yet. This is in a way similar to last year, when the "walking zombies" that were the Cardinals managed to stay just close enough that we couldn't give up on them until the very end of the season. This year, I believe the Cards are much more capable of playing this one out until the very end, but they need to keep it close. Last night's game was close, alright. They needed to win yesterday, and we can pretty much thank Carlos Villanueva for giving us the spark we needed to come back.


The graph above, grabbed from FanGraphs (click to enlarge), shows just how important that 8th inning was. Whether it was because of the trash-talking Villanueva is impossible to prove, but it sure seemed apparent that he played a part in awakening the slumbering offense. After Joe Mather's strikeout with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 7th, the Cards had a 13.9% Win Expectancy (WE) - the Brew Crew were up 3-1 and needed only 2 more scoreless innings to cap the two-game series sweep. By the end of that next 8th inning, however, the Win Expectancy for the Cardinals had jumped to 92.3%. Albert's double sent it from 17.0% at the end of the top of the 8th to 27.8%. Ryan Ludwick's RBI double sent it to 48.3%. Troy Glaus' RBI single-turned-double stretched the WE to 74.1%. Yadier Molina's small ball grounder kept it at 73.9%, and Aaron Miles' run-scoring ground ball brought the WE to 86.6%. After Cesar Izturis' flyout to end the inning, the Cards had jumped 75.3 percentage points to 92.3%. Talk about a wake-up call.

Bernie Miklasz has a good write-up on the whole Villanueva-Pujols incident. Take a looksy and determine for yourself if the trash-talking had anything to do with the late-inning comeback. All I know is, if this quote from Pujols doesn't scare the crap out of you, then you're either lying or dead:

“I told him to shut up and go to the dugout, he doesn’t have to do that. That’s when he said something in Spanish that I don’t want to say to you guys. But that’s when I got fired up. I told him to stop and come and say that to my face, but he was running away. That’s alright. I’m going to see him later.”
No matter what city, county, or country you're from, Albert will find you. And seek revenge.

As for the Cardinals, they're not out yet.

Question of the Day: Did Albert's fiery conversation with Villanueva spark the Cardinals' late-inning rally, or was it merely a coincidence?

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