Quick Hits: Wainer, El Hombre, instant replay, top seven, and gold gloves.

I'm heading back to school today, er... tomorrow, as I'm writing this while the Cards still lead 15-1 in the 8th. I guess it's about time anyways. The Olympics are ending, all my friends are scattered across the Midwest once again, and the days are getting shorter and less appealing for my summer-centric self. For those also going to college - good luck - and for those past that point in your lives - have fun staying where you are. All I know is it's (or will be) Saturday, and it's time for Saturday Quick Hits.

Wainer - What a start for Adam Wainwright, who made his first start back from injury look easy. He was pitching against a AAAA lineup, granted, but the relative ease of it all has me firmly believing he needs to stay in the rotation. Do you hear that Tony? KEEP WAINWRIGHT IN THE ROTATION. You have Chris Perez, Russ Springer, and Kyle McClellan ready to be the 8th and 9th inning guys and Ryan Franklin, Jaime Garcia, Brad Thompson, Joel Pineiro, and Ron Villone ready to give you multiple innings. The best stat of the night? 10 ground outs versus 4 fly outs for Wainer. He had good velocity, good control, and good movement on his curve. Me likey.

El Hombre - I brought your attention to Joe Posnanski's blog for his praise of Albert Pujols as Albert the Underrated. Well, he's at it again. In response to the notion that Albert pads his stats with RBIs when the game is already out of reach, Joe offers this:

Pretty much every time someone tells you, “Oh, all that guy does is rack up meaningless RBIs,” they are 100 percent wrong. Take Albert Pujols. Someone throws out there that he only gets hits and drives in runs when the score is out of hand, and in the old days when you got your box scores from the weekly Sporting News it would be hard to argue with that. But these days we have, you know, “facts,” and “statistics,” and those can paint a pretty clear picture.

Albert Pujols’ numbers in a tie game: .317/.418/.607.
Albert Pujols’ numbers within one run: .335/.430/.639
Albert Pujols’ numbers within two runs: .335/.432/.630
Albert Pujols’ numbers within three runs: .333/.427/.624
Albert Pujols’ numbers without four runs: .333/.426/.622

And finally …

Albert Pujols numbers when either team has a four run lead or more: .332/.408/.607.

OK, do you see that? The guy is precisely the same player in every single situation. Precisely. Frighteningly so.

Need anything more be said? It's nice to get love from Posnanski, but this isn't a case of someone having a predisposition towards a player. Albert's just that good.

Instant Replay - Baseball is one step closer to having instant replay, with an agreement being reached between MLB and the umpires' union. Per Ken Rosenthal:

MLB continues to wire ballparks for replay. The target date for implementation is late August or early September, sources say, ensuring that replay would be in place for the postseason.

If you're still on the fence about limited use of instant replay in baseball, let me direct you to this site, dissecting a certain play from the 1985 World Series. This analysis is crazy to think about:

Blown Call
X0 = P(of 0 runs scoring with a runner on 1st, 0 out) = P(Cards win Game 6 in 9th) = .5750
X1 = P(of 1 run scoring with runner on 1st, 0 out) = P(extra innings) = .1833
X2 = P(of 2 or more runs with runner on 1st, 0 out) = P(Royals win Game 6 in 9th) = .2417

The probability of the Cardinals winning Game 6 following Denkinger's blown call (assuming a 50% chance of winning an extra inning game) is then: X0 + 0.5*X1 = .5750 + 0.5*.1833 = .6667. And the probability of the Royals winning Game 6 is therefore 1 - .6667 = .3333.

Correct Call
Y0 = P(of 0 runs scoring with 0 on base, 1 out) = P(Cards win in 9) = .8420
Y1 = P(of 1 run scoring with 0 on, 1 out) = P(extra innings) = .0915
Y2 = P(of 2 or more runs with 0 on, 1 out) = P(Royals win in 9) = .0665

The probability of the Cardinals winning Game 6 if Denkinger had made the correct call is: Y0 + 0.5*Y1 = .8420 + 0.5*.0915 = .8878. So the probability of the Royals winning Game 6 is 1 - .8878 = .1122.

Denkinger's call therefore effectively tripled the Royals chances of winning the game from .11 to .33.

Kudos to The Baseball Analysts and Ross Roley for a thought-provoking article.

Top Seven - JoeSportsFan counts down the top seven Cards/Cubs moments of the decade. Number 1? One pitch after being thrown at by Kerry Wood, Albert Pujols "annihilates" the ball into the center field seats. Ah, the good ol' days.

Gold Gloves - Finally, check out Derrick Goold's analysis of Troy Glaus' defense. Should Troy receive a golden baseball mitt? Yes. Will he? Only if the sportswriters can accept that David Wright is good, plays in New York, and those two things alone don't automatically qualify you for an award.

I'm out. Go buy a t-shirt.