Cards get Felipe Lopez

The Cardinals signed Nationals 2B/SS Felipe Lopez yesterday after demoting Brendan Ryan to Triple-A Memphis. Lopez, 28, hit .234/.305/.314 with two home runs in 325 AB with the Nats. Sure, Lopez is an All-Star, but his only All-Star season is a season in which he hit 16 home runs over his previous career high (23) and saw a mysterious surge in his HR/FB rate, which ballooned from 10.1% in 2004 to 18.3% in 2005 and descended back down to 7.4% in 2006. Please, read on.

As inexplicable as his power surge (and subsequent power outage) was, his ability to cut down his strikeouts was remarkable as well. He went from a 29.9% K rate in 2003 to 30.7% in 2004 to 19.1% in 2005. Now, Lopez strikes out about 16.6% of the time - not great, but a far cry from striking out nearly a third of your at-bats. Felipe had two things going for him in his All-Star 2005 season: he was making more contact (thus striking out less) and those balls hit in play were leaving the ballpark at a rate better than they'd ever have. The weird thing is, he was hitting fly balls at a significantly less rate than the season before (26.8% compared to 38.1% in 2004) and was hitting line drives only slightly more than the previous year.

So, to package it all up neatly, Lopez was making more contact - which means less strikeouts - and he was hitting less flyballs, but when he did hit a flyball it was more likely to leave the park then ever before. If that doesn't spell A-N-O-M-A-L-Y, I don't know what does. Felipe's career numbers - .256/.325/.388 - are much more in line with what we can reasonably expect offensively, but even that might be setting the bar a little high.

The picture for Lopez's defense isn't pretty, either. Through June, he was tied for second-worst among second baseman in UZR ranking, costing his team 18 runs. An excerpt from On Baseball and the Reds, when Lopez was still playing shortstop:

Fielding, unfortunately, is not Lopez's strong suit. Last year, all fielding statistics indicated that he is, at best, an average fielder (Dewan+-, DialZR), and many indicated that he was well below average (Gassko, Pinto, Davenport). Gassko's stat, in particular, indicated that Lopez was the third-worst defensive shortstop in the major leagues last year, with only Russ Adams and Michael Young being worse. The statistic I favor the most, John Dewan's Plus/Minus statistic, is kinder, ranking Lopez 18th out of 32 starting shortstops last year. Lopez's biggest problem appears to be moving to his right (toward third base), where he is rated at -19 plays over the past three years. In contrast, he has a positive rating on balls hit straight to him or to his left (up the middle). One has to wonder if this indicates he should play a bit closer to third base than he traditionally has. Another way in which Lopez has struggled is in turning the double play, converting 5% less chances than expected last year.

Conceivably, he was supposed to improve defensively by moving to second base. That didn't happen.

If Felipe Lopez doesn't provide a significant offensive upgrade and he's a downgrade defensively, what does he provide? Not a whole lot, which is why this is a lateral move at best. I trust John Mozeliak a lot and respect him for the job he's done, but I just don't understand this move. Tony La Russa had to play a part in this, as the Cardinals have Jarrett Hoffpauir readily available in Memphis and would be the next logical choice for a team that has relied on their Triple-A players for most of the season - Kyle McClellan, Chris Perez, Kelvin Jimenez, Jaime Garcia, Mitch Boggs, Mike Parisi, Mark Worrell, Rico Washington, Nick Stavinoha, and Joe Mather. Jarrett Hoffpauir's Translated EqA is .232, compared to Felipe Lopez's EqA of .223. Basically, Hoff is the better player but, lacking a major league resume, was passed over in favor of Lopez. That's the way it goes.

It's not as if Felipe's a great clubhouse guy, either. Before the season, he scoffed at the mention of riding the bench in favor of Ronnie Belliard, per The Washington Post:

"No. Bench?," Lopez said when asked if he would accept a role behind Belliard. "No. I already said that. No. Hell, no. I feel good. The numbers are not showing, but I'm hitting the ball hard, playing great defense. I feel [freakin'] good. . . So whatever happens, I would like to stay here, but I'm not going to be happy on the bench. Hell no."

Classy.

As recently as June 28th (and I'm sure there have been more since then), Lopez has made a fool of himself in front of the mic, ripping his manager for a "lack of communication" per The Washington Times:

"What the [heck's] going on?' If you want to send a message, that's where the lack of communication comes from. That's what I'm talking about. If something's bothering you, then say it. This is like a kid, treating me like a kid, or like punishment or something for I don't know what."

Sure, you can pick quotes out that make anyone look bad, but the reports on Lopez all the way around aren't good. The guy sure likes to curse a lot, in this age of Ozzie Guillen say-what-you-feel-like-saying etiquette. Maybe Albert and Yadi can straighten him out, maybe not. He's a Cardinal now, and that means he's going to have to clean up his public relations act if he wants to do well with the fans. Another knock against Felipe.

It's not that there's anything inherently wrong with a move like this, it just doesn't seem necessary. Aaron Miles has hit really well this season and deserves to be the everyday second baseman. Felipe Lopez has hit just as bad as Cesar Izturis this season, only with worse defense. Where does that leave Felipe? On the bench? I thought that was his main beef with the Nationals. What does that mean for Jarrett Hoffpauir, who seemingly won't ever get the call? I don't know. If only Brian Barden wasn't leaving for the Olympics. Then we'd really have a case against Lopez.