Mark Mulder makes his first start with the Cardinals since 2007 tonight, and who knows what we can expect from him? In his relief appearances this season, Marky Mark has averaged 90.5 mph on his fastball, 73.3 mph on his curveball, and 82 mph on his changeup. Those are all faster than 2005, Mulder's last effective season as a starter. If Mark can get his K/9 up to the 5-6 range while keeping his BB/9 around or below 3, I have confidence that we'll see an effective Mulder on the mound. He has shown the velocity to do it this season; it's now a matter of locating pitches and keeping them down. In his heyday, Mark was posting ground ball rates up to 60.5%. Last season? 34%.

What does the rotation look like with a healthy Mark Mulder in it?

Mark Mulder
Braden Looper
Kyle Lohse
Todd Wellemeyer
Joel Pineiro

That's assuming Mark is able to hold his own in the rotation, which is a big assumption to make but not too far-fetched to be unbelievable. After all, he does have improved velocity, a simplified pitching motion, and a reason to perform well - he's a free agent after this season. With the good news coming from both the Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter front, however, what do you make of the rotation when one or both of them are ready to go back in it? And do we really have room to trade for an A.J. Burnett or Erik Bedard?

It's for precisely this reason that I think the Cardinals are attempting this move to the rotation now, before the All-Star break. After the break, teams will start becoming more active in the trade market. Some teams will reconcile with the notion of a losing season and become sellers; other teams will hold their chips and make a run at the post-season. Finding out what we have in Mulder now lets us judge if he's truly ready to be in the rotation for the rest of the season. It means we might not need to sell the farm to get a bona fide starting pitcher like Harden or Sabathia. It also means that maybe we can spin off Kyle Lohse for the right deal, possibly for a middle infielder.

Who gets bumped from the rotation when Adam Wainwright is ready? Looper is a free agent after this season and has expressed a strong desire to stay a starting pitcher. Wellemeyer has been impressive before he got hurt and has developed into a solid #3-4 rotation starter. Kyle Lohse is a Suppan-comparable starter and is safe from joining the bullpen. Joel Pineiro is being paid starter money this season and next, although he has extensive experience in the bullpen. And then there's the 6-man rotation, which would give our pitchers more rest but also reduce the impact a Wainwright return would have on this team. Personally, vote is for Braden Looper, but the dilemma needs to work itself out naturally. Chances are someone will be hurt when Adam is ready to return. It's too early to make any predictions.

A healthy Mulder could be huge for this team, but only if he can revert to some semblance of his 2005 form. Anything less is just a waste of a rotation spot, as we have Mitch Boggs, Anthony Reyes, and Jaime Garcia itching to join the big league rotation soon. This could be a big day for the Cardinals. Let's hope it's a good one.