There's something about this time of year. I don't know what it is, but I find the hot stove season extremely fascinating and compelling. Trades out of left field (see Walker, Larry) or ones you could see a mile away (see Hitchcock, Sterling) make this a fun time to be a fan, especially if your team is buying at the deadline. I fully expect the Cardinals to make some sort of move, given that they're only one game out of the wild card lead. And I also fully expect that deal to happen after 6 PM, tonight or tomorrow, after Chris Carpenter shows us what he's made of. This is one of the most important games of the year, as it could dictate what state of mind we're in at the deadline. Overall, this entire series is a terribly important one - it's the only time we know either the Brewers or Cubs will lose, making each win a crucial one.
Without further ado, I've ranked the top three most likely and top three least likely to come here by tomorrow. These ranking are only based on what we know from the Ken Rosenthal's and Jon Heyman's of the world, much like putting together a puzzle without knowing what it's supposed to look like. No inside information, just a knowledge of the rumors and the people making them. Hopefully, we can start piecing the puzzle together.
Most Likely to be Coming Here
John Grabow, LHP: After trading away Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte, Grabow is one of the better trading chips the Pirates have. A 3.19 ERA and 7.55 K/9 is nice, but he has a 4.65 FIP and has struggled getting ground balls this season, recording ground outs 36.8% of the time. He'll be under team control for next year, making him more attractive to the Cardinals, and he probably won't cost nearly as much as Marte. A 'B' prospect will suffice.
Arthur Rhodes, LHP: Arthur has been dynamite this season, but his ability to be an everyday guy is questionable. He's pitched a total of 21.1 innings for the Mariners, coupled with a 10.97 K/9 and 2.02 FIP. He's more of a LOOGY than Grabow, which might not totally be what the Cardinals are looking for, and he isn't a long-term solution. Still, he's certainly going to be traded, and the asking price couldn't be too high. A good plan B if we can't get Sherrill or others.
Mark Grudzielanek, 2B: The other Marky Mark has a .746 OPS this season, including 24 doubles and 3 home runs. Compared to Brendan Ryan and Adam Kennedy, Mark looks like Ryne Sandberg. It's unclear what the Royals would want for Grudz, but they probably will trade the pending free agent to someone this season.
Least Likely to be Coming Here
Brian Fuentes, LHP: The Rockies are on the fence, as they are now 7 games back in the NL West. Even if they were going to trade Fuentes, we'd not only have to meet their better-than-two-draft-picks asking price, but we'd also have to outbid other contenders. If the Cardinals are playing for the future as well as the present, they could find better options than Fuentes. I think they will.
Matt Holliday, OF: Ditto Fuentes, except multiply it by 1000. Holliday is their franchise player, and the only way they trade him is if it's for Colby Rasmus. It's much more likely that they trade him at next year's deadline, a la Mark Teixeira and the Braves.
Jason Bay, OF: The Pirates are definitely shopping Bay, but the Cards are going to have to pay up to get him. I don't see it happening, especially given the "deep talks" between the Rays and Pirates concerning Bay.
Up in the Air
George Sherrill, LHP: The discussions are ongoing with the Orioles and Sherrill suitors, and the Cardinals are among the teams interested. Sherrill has been discussed to death here, complete with trade proposal and analysis. His chances of coming to the Cards are less than 50%, probably at 25-30%.
Will Ohman, LHP: Ohman possibly leap-frogged Sherrill on the Cardinals' tip sheet, due to the Braves' sudden willingness to trade him and his solid numbers this season. The Cardinals are mentioned as a suitor here, but the Braves may still decide to keep Ohman and try to re-sign him after the season.
A.J. Burnett, RHP: Here come the A.J. rumors again. Chris Carpenter's start will play a large part in determining if we need another starter, making A.J. more of a plan B or C option. Plus, if you believe Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi, Burnett is "not going anywhere."
I trust John Mozeliak will make the right move between now and tomorrow. He's a smart guy who knows what he's looking for. Plus, he has Jeff Luhnow on the same page, making decisions on expendable prospects and determining which prospect should or shouldn't be available. There's some rumblings that this is holding Mozeliak back by making him unwilling to trade prospects, but that simply isn't true. Both guys know what this time of year means, and both want to field a winning ballclub. The only difference is they want to have a winning ballclub now and in 2009, 2010, and beyond.
I'll be around again all day to keep you updated on any new rumors. I expect to participate in the Joe Strauss chat session at 1 o'clock today, which certainly will involve some trade talk. Chris Carpenter's start tonight is huge. I'm happy he made it this far, and I only hope he can cap it off with a solid, injury-free start. Good luck, Chris.
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