So here we sit … half of the baseball season is but a memory. Another half shall begin tonight. And what exactly can we expect from the upcoming 2 ½ months? Well, simply stated, “Expect the Unexpected.” Think back to Spring Training when all of the so-called experts and prognosticators gave their bold predictions for the upcoming season. Is it possible to make sense of it all? The Tampa Bay Rays with a winning record? The top three teams in the National League coming from the “Comedy” Central? Josh Hamilton hitting 28 home runs in one round in the Home Run Derby? The National League losing AGAIN to the Junior Circuit? (Well, that I can believe). The Cubs 19 games over .500? The Cardinals 10 games over .500?
It has certainly been a, for lack of a better term, surprising first half to the 2008 baseball season. So while I can enjoy my final All Star “BREAK” for awhile (I’ll be a little pre-occupied next year at this time), I thought I would crunch some numbers and take a look at the second half of the season and what we might see.
| Cubs | Cardinals | Brewers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games Remaining | 67 | 66 | 67 |
| Current Record | 57-38 | 53-43 | 52-43 |
| Games Behind | -- | 4.5 | 5 |
| Home Games Remaining | 32 | 34 | 33 |
| Road Games Remaining | 35 | 32 | 34 |
| Games Remaining vs. teams with a .500 record or better | 37 | 35 | 23 |
| Games Remaining vs. teams within 6 games of division lead (or division leader) | 37 | 38 | 26 |
So what does all of this mean? Does any of this mean anything??? Here’s how this Cardinal loyalist is looking at it: First of all, the Cardinals need to start winning some series. For those fans out there that are overly obsessed with winning every game, that is a bit far-fetched. This team must focus on 3- or 4-game spurts at a time. If you simply win the series, your record will surely remain above the .500 mark (the first step in making a run at post-season, unless of course you are playing in the National League West) and you would continue to put pressure on those teams above you in the standings. Chances are, the distance between you and the division leader would, over time, diminish to a much more manageable endeavor.
Looking at the games remaining for each of these teams and the respective location, the Cubs have enjoyed the spoils of home cooking during the first half of the season, boasting the best home record in the National League. Conversely, they are below .500 on the road (20-26). The north-siders have the most road games remaining of the three teams. Chance to gain ground for the Cardinals? Absolutely!
As the old adage goes, “It’s not whether you win or lose, but how you play the game.” That’s true, but a true journalist (which I am NOT) looks at all of the “W’s.” Some numbers that I found a bit more interesting, and perhaps more meaningful, are not necessarily where you play the game (which we briefly touched upon earlier), but rather who you are playing. (I’ll get to the when in a minute.) As I look at a match-up, I like to look at more than just the records. How have the teams done in their last 10 games? Who is pitching? Are they in a pennant race themselves? This third question is the one that I am focusing on. While it is a bit premature to start talking about elimination numbers, for some teams reality has already struck and “it’s just a matter of time.” But there are others that still are in the running for competing in October. The benchmark that I used was those teams that are within 6 games of the division lead (much like our home team). Will this determine help us determine which of the Central contenders has the easiest schedule remaining? I guess we’ll have to wait and see, but here are my findings anyway:
Of the 66 games remaining on the Cardinals schedule, 38 (57.6%) are against teams that are currently in a division race. The Cubs have 37 of 67 (55.2%) against such opponents, while the BrewCrew has only 26 games (38.8%) against teams in the upper echelon of their division. What does all of this mean? Maybe nothing and that I just wasted about an hour of my life that I can’t get back from looking through schedules, but I tend to see it as somewhat indicative of the ease of a schedule for a given team. It would appear that the Brewers have an easier last two months of the season compared to that of the other two division contenders. The Cardinals and Cubs, however, have little margin for error in the majority of their remaining contests as teams look to “bring their A game” and help their own October dreams.
Finally, I shall take on the “W” of when. Without fail, the team schedules are nitpicked and ridiculed for one reason or another. Maybe a team is forced to spend a large amount of time away from their home field. Perhaps a team doesn’t take on a division foe during the final couple weeks of the season. There’s always the issue of interleague play and one team having an edge over another due to “regional rivalries” and other made-for-TV series that take place year-over-year. And perhaps the “predicted division powerhouses” don’t play each other during the final month of the season, much like the Cardinals and Cubs experienced in 2006 when their final head-to-head meeting was on August 25. For a sport that thrives on television ratings and pennant chases, one would think that these would be taken into consideration when making the schedules. Well, perhaps the schedule makers had a method to their madness this season. As I look at the September schedule, I am intrigued by the following match-ups:
- Last 13 games for the Cubs: 3 vs.
- July 21-24: Brewers at Cardinals … The tone will be set for the second half right away. Will this finally be the year the Brewers make it back to post-season? Will C.C. Sabathia make his presence felt against inner-division opponents?
- August 11-24: 12 games that will be key for the Cardinals and their hopes for a September surge. 4 at
As I sit here composing this outlook and further develop carpal tunnel, I cannot tell you how this whole thing will play out. One thing I can be sure of is that this Cardinals team will not quit. What more would you expect from a Tony LaRussa-led group? Personally, I don’t know how much faith we can put in having our two big starters – Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright – being as effective as they have in the past. Look to the Mark Mulder situation for further proof of this. I see the Brewers staying in this race to the bitter end. They have a nice offensive lineup and they have solidified their starting rotation. And then there are the Cubs. These are your grandparents’ Cubs anymore. They have a new attitude with Lou Piniella, they are hungrier now more than ever, they have upper management that is willing to do whatever it takes to bring that town a winner, not to mention they are pretty good too. I see them as the team to beat in the Central.
All in all, this has already been a season that has exceeded expectations. Stay tuned … it’s bound to get even more exciting!!!
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