It's pretty evident after last night's game that in order to contend with the Brewers and Cubs we're going to need an upgrade to the bullpen. Whether that upgrade comes from within, when Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright come back, or from outside the organization remains to be seen. The weakest part of our bullpen, however, is the lack of a shutdown reliever from the left side - a reliever you could use for two games in a series and rest your righthanded pitchers. The Cardinals, unfortunately, don't have an answer to that hole within their own system, even when Carp and Wainer come back. Then there's the middle infield "impact bat" dilemma: we could really use a good infield bat, but there aren't very many out there. Names like Christian Guzman and Mark Grudzielanek are bound to command an asking price that dips into the future of this ballclub.
So here we stand in the middle of a four-game series with the Brewers, wondering what should we do. Do we stand pat and be content with what we have? Or should we get a Ron Mahay or Damaso Marte? I certainly don't have the answers to those questions, but I do know that Mozeliak is waiting to see what he has in his own club before deciding anything. Chris Carpenter will make at least one more start before the trade deadline and Wainwright should have started his rehab assignment by then, giving us a better idea of when we can expect them back. Those two have the potential of an impact acquisition in August. Still, what trading chips do we have to work with if we wanted to go outside the organization?
Jon Jay, OF: Jon has always had the tools to put together a season like he's having but injuries prevented him from doing so last year. This year in Double-A Springfield, Jay is hitting .309/.378/.462 in 353 AB with good defense. The Cardinals have a logjam of outfielders at practically every level, making this Skip Schumaker-with-power-esque outfielder an expendable piece.
Bryan Anderson, C: Bryan is far more valuable than we probably realize. He's only 21 and is putting up a .314/.389/.423 line in Triple-A Memphis. Memphis! In addition to solid contact hitting, Anderson has made strides defensively and is more of an all-around prospect than the other catching prospects you hear mentioned. To trade Anderson, we're going to need a serious haul in return. Anderson+ for Justin Duchsherer serious.
Mitch Boggs, SP: Boggs is a good pitching prospect - he's only 24-years-old, has posted good numbers at every level, and has a solid pitching repertoire featuring a fastball, slider, curve, and changeup. Still, his stuff doesn't blow you away, and the Cardinals are going to have a pitching bonanza next year with about seven pitchers vying for one rotation spot.
Joe Mather, OF: If we were in an ideal world, Joe would still be with the big club plugging away. In Memphis he's batting .303/.409/.630 with 17 home runs, a continuation of the progress he's made the past two years. He could become an everyday outfielder or corner infielder if given the chance, but the Cardinals might have trouble giving him that with the number of outfielders on this team. Mather will most likely stay on board for a September call-up.
Allen Craig, 3B: With Troy Glaus and David Freese blocking him at the next two levels, along with Brett Wallace making noise two levels below him, it's hard to see where Craig fits into this organization. And, at 24-years-old, there going to need to figure out where to put him soon. He makes sense to use in a trade - it allows him to get higher-level playing time in another organization and the Cardinals can capitalize on the .299/.365/.499 line he's putting up as a surplus prospect.
Nick Stavinoha, OF: Nick is another underrated prospect in our system, due mainly to the fact that he's 26-years-old and is another outfielder in an outfield-rich farm system. Still, he's batting .348/.374/.536 in 336 ABs, two seasons after a remarkable 2006 campaign in which he battled back from an awful slump to bring his batting average back to .297. Stavinoha is a fourth outfielder at best, but he could be useful to a team needing an outfielder who can split time at DH.
Jess Todd, SP: One of the least likely to be traded, Todd has a ton of value after shooting up the ranks in his second season of pro ball. His 3.74 FIP and low velocity have me a little cautious, but he has put together quality start after quality start in Springfield. He won't be traded unless Jason Bay or Brian Fuentes are involved, nor should he.
Jaime Garcia, SP: Regardless if he has questionable mechanics, Jaime is one of my favorite pitching prospects. It was pretty clear he was nervous in his first start, but he showed us four good pitches in his brief time with the big club, including a curveball he wasn't afraid to use. Trading Jaime would be trading one of our top three prospects, so you better believe we'd have to get something good. Something really, really good.
Anthony Reyes, SP/RP: Of course, what's a trading chips list without a little Anthony Reyes? The Cardinals are still waiting for Anthony to build up his trade value, but a start on Sunday (5 IP, 4 ER) didn't help. Still, you gotta think that some team values a 26-year-old capable of putting up a 3.25 ERA and 47 K's in 52.2 innings of Triple-A. Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
Chris Duncan, OF/1B: Now we're talking. Trading 'lil Dunc would be tough for Mozeliak, but maybe a change of scenery will do Chris some good. The only thing is, Dunc's value is at its lowest right now with a .248/.346/.365 line. Players are like stocks, and you don't sell your stock when it's low. That is, unless you don't think it will go back up.
Skip Schumaker, OF: Some may be up in arms about trading Skip, but he could be valuable in a package that nets us an impact bat or bona fide arm. Trading Skip would be selling high, although not as high as Kyle Lohse. The Cardinals are going to have an outfield situation of Rick Ankiel, Colby Rasmus, and Ryan Ludwick next year, along with Chris Duncan, Skip, Mather, Brian Barton, and Nick Stavinoha. Skip could be more expendable than you think.
Kyle Lohse, SP: Kyle is the least likely of the trading chips, but he certainly has the most value. I cringe knowing that we could probably get at least one top ten prospect for Lohse - or, depending on what he does tonight, maybe even two. A team desperate for starting pitching would overpay to get a guy who has a career 4.68 ERA and 4.56 FIP. If we don't trade him, I still don't think we can afford to sign him. If he is dealt, however, it will certainly be after we get great news coming from the Carpenter/Wainwright front, most likely on or around July 31st.
That's the list. Of course, there could be other players involved in discussions, but the chips listed here are the main ones that are going to keep the phone from being slammed down. I'm not saying we should trade all these guys, especially not all or most of them, but trading Allen Craig or Chris Duncan to get a valuable piece in return could make a lot of sense. And, for the A's fan that wanted to trade a good starter and a bunch of spare parts for Colby Rasmus, you might want to stick to this list. Raz ain't going anywhere.
So, what would you like to see happen involving our trading chips? Trade none and wait for the reinforcements? Trade 'em all? Let's hear it!
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5 comments:
It'd be fascinating to see Lohse get moved if we could get top-notch talent back, but that's a hard sell to the fans. From a purely planning point of view, though, Mozeliak would have to think about it.
To make any trade, there has to be a match ... meaning Team A needs an outfielder and Team B needs a pitcher ... Team B's best prospect might actually be a SS, but that's not what Team A is looking to buy, so Team A keeps looking for a match with a team that has the best outfielder before they give up their pitcher. I don't think its going to be easy for the Cardinals to just trade whoever they don't want ... there has to be a match.
Exactly (although a bit confusing). There has to be a match. I'm willing to bet there'd be quite a number of teams that would match up for Kyle Lohse...
Shockingly enough, the Nationals are short-sided enough to sign Christian Guzman again, this time to a two-year, $16 million contract extension. Yikes. Count him out, and I'm glad.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/weblogs/chatter/2008/Jul/22/nats-trade-rauch-dbacks/
Pittsburgh is supposedly hot after Duncan and Reyes - how can we not find a match there?
Dunc and Reyes for Marte/Grabow and Jack Wilson, anyone?
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