Free agents after the season

With talk starting to spread of the Cardinals' interest in Matt Holliday and/or Brian Fuentes, the issue of how much should we sacrifice from our farm club to benefit the current club is also emerging. My gut reaction is very little, since we started this season in a "transition" phase with the hope that 2009 and 2010 would be our real chance to make a playoff run. Names like Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia, Clayton Mortensen, Jess Todd, Jason Motte, Brian Anderson, and Joe Mather are all waiting in the wings to make contributions to the big league club at minimal cost. If you factor in a free agent acquisition or two, you could have a very powerful mix of youth and veterans that could lead this team. It got me thinking, who will be returning next year, and who won't?

The team currently has on contract for next year:

• Albert Pujols, $16m
• Troy Glaus, $11.25m
• Chris Carpenter, $14m
• Joel Pineiro, $7.5m
• Adam Kennedy, $4m
• Yadier Molina, $3.25m
• Adam Wainwright, $2.6m
• Ryan Franklin, $2.5m
• Total, $61.1m

Chris Carpenter may or may not be due a $2m deferral, so that could be included in miscellaneous costs. I don't think our current base looks that bad when you consider that it almost is the entire infield, including the best baseball player on the planet, and your two ace pitchers. Arbitration-eligible players are always tricky, but we have quite a few to deal with next year:

• Rick Ankiel
• Ryan Ludwick
• Todd Wellemeyer
• Brad Thompson
• Aaron Miles
• Randy Flores
• Tyler Johnson, Super 2?
• Chris Duncan, Super 2?

The Super 2 status is up in the air for both Chris Duncan and Tyler Johnson, as I'll be the first to admit that it's pretty complicated to figure out. You can read up on Super 2 status and service time here. Some quotes to consider:

A player earns Major League service time for each day he spends on the active (25-man) roster or on the Major League 15-day or 60-day disabled lists. A player also continues to earn service time while serving any disciplinary suspension or serving in the military.Under the CBA, 1 year of service is defined as 172 days. A player may earn up to 172 days of Major League service during a championship season (regular season), which generally lasts 183 calendar days. If a player is sent to the minor leagues on optional assignment for a total of 20 days or less during a season, he receives service time for the entire season.

And this:

A player with almost 3 years of Major League service time may become eligible for arbitration. To qualify, a player must:

• have at least 2 years of service, but less than 3, and
• have accumulated at least 86 days of service in the previous year, and
• rank in the top 17% of all 2-year players in service time.

The cutoff point generally falls between 2 years, 128 days of service and 2 years, 140 days.

I'm assuming at least Chris Duncan will be a Super 2, but if he's not then he'll have another season of the minimum contract in the range of $0.4m and $0.45m.

Next, we've come to the list of players that are free agents at the end of the season:

• Jason Isringhausen
• Juan Encarnacion
• Braden Looper
• Kyle Lohse
• Russ Springer
• Cesar Izturis
• Jason LaRue
• Ron Villone
• Mark Mulder ($11m option)
• Matt Clement ($8.75m option)

I have a hard time believing Mark Mulder and Matt Clement's options will be picked up unless a miracle happens between now and the end of the season. Both might never start a game again, which would dramatically alter their future earnings aside from their performance at the major league level. Discussions are starting for a Kyle Lohse extension, but I'm not quite sure we need it. Adam Wainwright, Todd Wellemeyer, Joel Pineiro will all be back next year, and Chris Carpenter might be included in the starting rotation as well. With Lohse being on the pace that he is now, he could become a type-A free agent at the end of the season and merit another draft pick for us. Jaime Garcia, Mitch Boggs, Clayton Mortensen, Jess Todd, and even Kyle McClellan are all capable of filling the 5th starter role. An extension might be too pricey and unnecessary.

The rest of the active roster is due minimal increases next season:

• Brian Barton
• Mitch Boggs
• Kyle McClellan
• Chris Perez
• Skip Schumaker
• Brendan Ryan

If you average that they'll receive around $0.425m each, which totals to less than $3m.

In summary, the Cards are going to have a good portion of payroll to spend next off-season, which is good in a free agent class that is going to have Orlando Hudson, Rafael Furcal, Ben Sheets, and C.C. Sabathia available and may have Dayan Viciedo, Rich Harden, Damaso Marte, and Edgar Renteria available too. Trading Jaime Garcia or Colby Rasmus now would be detrimental to the future of the organization, which is the exact opposite of the goal we started the season with. It would be wise to refrain from handing out an extension to Kyle Lohse or overpaying in prospects for Brian Fuentes or Matt Holliday, especially when the market is going to have good options available at the end of the season. Hold on to your wallet, Mo. And your prospects. The important ones, at least.

References: Cot's Contracts, Rotoworld