Saturday, April 05, 2008

Top 5 Trade Candidates

Of course it's way too early to be making trade predictions, especially since the Cardinals are doing really well four games into the season, but that doesn't mean we can't look at some Cardinals that might end the season in different jerseys. The outfield is crowded with capable players, not to mention Colby Rasmus and Joe Mather in Memphis. In the bullpen, Chris Perez, Jason Motte, and Mark Worrell are all taking their next step towards the majors as well. The rotation could actually have excess talent by July also, with Pineiro coming back soon, Mulder making his first start, and the two unknown quantities in Clement and Carpenter coming back around that time. So who will be mentioned at the deadline?

1. Kyle Lohse

Lohse is the most likely to get traded, mainly because of his affordable contract and free agent status at the end of the season. The Reds got Matt Maloney for virtually the same deal last year. His line at the time: 131.2 IP, 6-12, 4.58 ERA, 2.42 K/BB. He'll hit that mark playing in the NL Central, and a team needing pitching depth will be anxious to add his arm. With Pineiro, Mulder, Clement, and Carpenter all in the mix by the end of July, this move almost makes too much sense.

2. Chris Duncan

It's hard to gauge the willingness of the Cardinals to trade Duncan given the father-son relationship, but from an objective view he seems to be the odd man out in the outfield. Rick Ankiel will have his spot all year, Brian Barton will get more playing time as he proves himself, and Skip Schumaker and Ryan Ludwick have both solidified their spots on the team. With Colby Rasmus waiting in the wings, the Cardinals are looking at having possibly four lefthanded outfielders on the team. The Cards will wait to let Duncan's stock rise as he gets healthier, but a team needing a lefty masher could target him as the season progresses. I could see the Cardinals trading Duncan even if the team is still in the race come July.

3. Ron Villone

Lefty relievers are always in high demand, and Villone's value could rise as he gets put in situations to succeed as Tony La Russa is apt to do with relievers. With Tyler Johnson due back at some point this year, the Cards could spin Villone off for a middling prospect or perhaps another piece to the puzzle if they are still contending.

4. Skip Schumaker

Schumaker's future could depend on how well Chris Duncan and Colby Rasmus start the season. Teams needing a 3rd/4th outfielder have already started to inquire about Skip, but the Cardinals are content to hold onto their leadoff hitter for now. Colby Rasmus could drastically change the picture if he absolutely rakes in Memphis, and there might be a choice made between Schumaker and Duncan concerning who stays with the team. If you're looking at next year's roster, the outfield list is long: Ankiel, Rasmus, Mather, Barton, Ludwick, Schumaker, Duncan. All capable players; something has to give.

5. Anthony Reyes

The perennial trade candidate is out to prove himself again this season, and he had a great debut, striking out three batters in an inning of work. Anthony failed to get a starting rotation spot despite having a better spring than Todd Wellemeyer and just as good of a spring as Brad Thompson. The Cards could be trying to ease Anthony into a starter role by putting him in the bullpen, a la Wainwright, or they could be simply letting him build up his trade value. Either way, the bullpen will get pretty crowded as the starters begin to come back. It might be best to let Reyes do his thing elsewhere.

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