Taking a Look at Ryan Ludwick

I thought it was appropriate to follow up Chris Duncan's "Taking a Look" preview with Ryan Ludwick, since both project to have very similar years. Ryan barnstormed onto the scene in 2007, taking a career .237/.299/.416 line to new heights:

Year	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	R
2007	303	.267	.339	.479	14	52	42

Ludwick definitely had a career year, and it might be a little much to ask him to repeat his success at the major league level. Some things, however, have stayed consistent for the 29 year-old outfielder. I mentioned how the Cardinals have a plethora of lefthanded outfielders in the system - Rick Ankiel, Chris Duncan, Skip Schumacher, Colby Rasmus, and Cody Haerther - but you can pretty much add Ludwick to that list as well. In addition to throwing lefthanded, Ludwick has a significant career split favoring righthanded pitchers. Whether this be an anomaly or not, there's no denying that Ryan is better off facing pitchers coming from the same side of the plate:

Pitcher's Handedness	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	BB
Lefty	256	.211	.286	.418	13	32	21
Righty	381	.278	.341	.465	15	64	33

So Ludwick does not really have his righthandedness to his advantage as some may think, which could be a shortcoming on a team with a suitable number of lefties in the lineup. Still, Ludwick remains a promising player with an unproven resume. The projections for 2008 may give us a better perspective on what to expect next year:

Proj. Sys.	AB	BA	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	R
Bill James	235	.264	.329	.468	11	40	35
CHONE	453	.249	.323	.442	20	63	35
Marcel	329	.267	.341	.465	14	47	47
ZiPS	412	.262	.330	.476	20	64	37
Average	357	.260	.331	.463	16	54	39

Ludwick is projected to have a slightly less productive year than 'lil Dunc, and he is still a bargain at less than $500k. Aside from the pessimistic projection from Bill James, the overall trend for Ludwick is a path more similar to his breakout season last year than his career numbers. I'll definitely take that, as he could easily serve as a replacement for Chris Duncan if Duncan is traded at some point during the season. ZiPS sees the two as the most similar, which is uncharacteristically high from ZiPS given Ludwick career numbers. Overall, if we can see a season like the one projected here, I couldn't complain.