Taking a look at Rick Ankiel

Rick Ankiel enters the season as one of the wildcards in the lineup; less than six months removed from his remarkable re-entrance onto the St. Louis stage, we don't know what to expect from the 28 year-old slugger. Rick's sharp September decline has been talked about here before, and it's close proximity to the New York Daily News' HGH allegations made it seem to be more of a mental issue than a physical one. Haven't we heard that before? Despite Rick's production as a starting right fielder, we still don't have a clear idea of what to expect in 2008. Did Rick face a mental stumbling block that hindered his play halfway through September, and will he be able to recover from it? Did HGH play a role in Rick's amazing revival in the minors and the bigs? Or did pitchers figure out a way to pitch him, as it was obvious off-speed pitches could send him into a tailspin? Lots of questions and not a whole lot of answers. Anyone could make a case for any one of those theories.

So we're simply left with what we have - numbers. We can't go inside Ankiel's head, nor can we figure out what effect HGH had on his play, if any. We can neither dissect what Rick's mental condition is, nor can we predict where it will be one-third of the way through the season when he hits a slump. Alas, we have only numbers to draw conclusions from, and a pretty unusual case to work with in itself. Maybe looking at Ankiel's minor league stats will give us some insight as to whether the new Rick, Wonderboy, the Natural, is for real.

From Rick's time in AA and beyond, his K% and BB% stayed remarkably consistent, a sign of the natural skill set in regards to command of the strike zone and ability to make contact. However, his isolated power - or ISOP - fluctuated from .272 to .301 to .250. Interestingly enough, his ISOP declined dramatically in September '07, from .295 to .225. It's significant that his GB% rose while LD% dropped in September as well, which could be a signal to us that Rick was pressing in those turbulent times of HGH suspense. Slick Rick was a fly ball guy in AAA Memphis, measuring a GB% of a cool 36%. When hitters press, it's hard to get solid contact on the ball and the result is a lower BA and BABIP because less line drives are being hit... as is the case from September. Ankiel's home run rate translated well from AA and AAA to the MLB.

Year	Level	AB	ISOP	HR	K%	BB%	BABIP
2005	AA	136	.272	10	19.9	6.8	.237
2006	AAA	389	.301	32	21.0	7.0	.270
2007	MLB	172	.250	11	21.6	6.8	.317

Ankiel stayed pretty consistent with his production until September, when he hit a drop-off and subsequent decline. I don't think it's too much to expect a return of his ISOP to normal levels, perhaps with improved plate discipline as well. As for his other skill sets, you know what you are getting in his defense - adequate fielding with a rocket for an arm - along with decent speed as well. Let's see what the projections have to say, courtesy of Fangraphs and BBTF:

Proj. Sys.	AB	BA	HR	RBI	ISOP	OBP	K%	BB%	BABIP
Bill James	456	.257	29	94	.241	.301	21.3	6.0	.241
CHONE	510	.249	27	75	.212	.300	24.1	6.3	.278
Marcel	264	.277	12	47	.205	.334	20.8	8.0	.310
ZiPS	448	.241	25	77		.285
Average	420	.256	23	73	.219	.305	22.1	6.8	.276

Overall, Rick is projected to have a respectable year. The lack of OBP worries me, but the K% and BB% are right on track with career norms, as should be assumed. If Rick can keep the GB% low, then I could see him putting together a 30-90 season. Especially with the added protection of Troy Glaus and the possibility of Rasmus leading off, it would be wise for Rick to work on his OBP in order to create runs and run-scoring opportunities.

Rick Ankiel still remains an enigma as to what we are going to get in 2008, but I could see him turning in a season close to the Bill James side of the spectrum rather than ZiPS. At the very least, this continues to be a fascinating year for the Cardinals, as Rick Ankiel is just one of an assortment of players that could take it to the next level or settle in as a average player. Here's hoping for the former rather than the latter.

EDIT: Out of my own curiosity and interest, what line do you expect from Rick Ankiel in 2008? I'll go ahead and post my prediction: .268/.320/.530, 29 HR, 83 RBIs, 65 runs. I guess I'm pretty optimistic for Ank. If I get enough predictions, I'll post them in a similar fashion to VEB's community projections.