Tuesday, January 15, 2008

Another Look at the Rolen Trade

Yesterday I took a quick look at the offensive numbers between Glaus and Rolen, and I certainly think that deserves a more in-depth post tomorrow. But for now I wanted to take a look at the defensive numbers of the two and how much of a drop-off from Rolen Glaus really is. Scott Rolen was without a doubt one of the best fielding third basemen to wear a Cardinal uniform and is still one of the best ever in the entire league. The owner of seven Gold Gloves, Rolen was like another shortstop on the field in 2007 with a sweet .847 zone rating, good for second among all third basemen. Glaus wasn't quite as nimble at the hot corner, registering a .737 ZR, tied with Casey Blake for fourth worst. When they did get to the ball, however, they were comparable in fielding percentage - Rolen at .969 and Glaus at .967. Of course some of those errors by Rolen would have been past Glaus, but it shows that Glaus was right up there with Rolen.

It's quite possible that an infield with Cesar Izturis and Troy Glaus could be equal or better than one with Rolen and Eckstein. Using Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs Above Replacement (FRAR), Glaus could be better than we expect - he posted 12 FRAR in 2007 and 23 in 2006, compared to Rolen's 25 FRAR in 2007 and 33 in 2006. Last year's totals between Rolen and Glaus in FP, ZR, and FRAR stack up like this:

PlayerFPZRFRAR
Rolen.969.84725
Glaus.967.73712

I'm not going to put on the rose-colored glasses and say that Glaus will provide anywhere near the type of defense Scott Rolen did, but he does hold value defensively at the hot corner and could excel next to Izturis the Great.

If Glaus can overcome his injury troubles, which may have been worsened by playing on artificial grass, we could see an improvement from his already adequate defense. I'll miss the acrobatic, did-you-just-see-that plays from Scotty, but he wanted out and we gave it to him. Glaus may not be a Gold Glover, but he ain't no pushover.

2 comments:

  1. As lboros (I believe) said at VEB, you know there is going to be at least one game that we lose because Glaus won't get to a ball Rolen would have.

    That's what I'll miss the most this season. Watching Rolen make the spectacular look routine and wondering every time a ball is hit down the line, "Would Scotty have gotten that?"
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  2. I have that same feeling as well, but how many more games will we win because we have a productive bat behind Pujols? If Izturis can remain an adequate hitter in the lineup (that's an incredibly huge if), the defensive upgrade over Eckstein could slightly negate the gap between Rolen and Glaus.
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