Bring Me Burnett

After further consideration, A.J. Burnett might make the most sense this off-season as the Cardinals search for a front-line starter. Other names that came up were Ian Snell of the Pirates, Joe Blanton of the A's, Dontrelle Willis of the Marlins, Jon Garland of the White Sox, and Noah Lowry of the Giants. I think A.J. wins out because he possesses that allusive attainability, the ability to acquire a substantial return for a feasible amount. A.J.'s contract looks a whole lot better in today's market than it did two years ago: $12 M in 2008, $12 M in '09, and $12 M in '10. He also has a player opt-out clause in his contract that allows him to become a free agent next year. As a Blue Jay, it seems very likely that he would do this if he has a good season next year, and the Jays would probably want to dump his contract if he has a down year. Either way, it doesn't seem likely that he'll play out the rest of his contract with Toronto.

As a Cardinal, it's possible that A.J. Burnett would want to opt-out, but there would remain a greater possibility that we could work out an extension - A.J. wanted to come here two years ago and the Cardinals have a successful history of retaining players (some would argue a little too successful). The question becomes is he worth $12 M per to the Cardinals?

The question is no longer is he objectively worth $12 M, but rather is he worth it in today's market? Sports agents love it this way, and, according to their recent transactions, the Cardinals seem willing to approach it this way too (if not, then what the heck were they thinking?). Last off-season, Gil Meche signed a 5/$55 M, Ted Lilly for 4/$40, and Jeff Suppan at 4/$40. All marginal players, all received stunning contracts. Carlos Zambrano was the most recent signing, landing a 5/$90 M contract this year from the Cubs. Despite his injury history, A.J. has been able to put up solid numbers over the course of a season. I think we can deduct that A.J.'s contract is very affordable for his production in today's market.

As for what it would cost, the package starts with Anthony Reyes and maybe Chris Duncan. Duncan isn't too much considering Ryan Ludwick is projected to put up similar numbers according to the 2008 ZiPS and the Cards have a plethora of outfielders.

Burnett stabilizes the rotation, keeps the payroll reasonable, and gives the Cards a shot to contend in 2008 and beyond. If DeWitt really is willing to field a $115 M team, it gives you the ability to make a run at Aaron Rowand or package Bryan Anderson and Co. for a middle infielder.